With less than two weeks until he is expected to become prime minister, Andy Burnham has promised to significantly change Labour’s agenda – but he will inherit a bulging in-tray of challenges left by Keir Starmer, from geopolitics to the cost of living.
One of the most immediate tests will be welfare. Burnham will be in power when the final recommendations of the Timms review into disability benefits land. The interim report proposes radical changes to personal independence payments, which have surged since 2020 and are forecast to double by 2030. A rightwing opposition is expected to demand cuts, especially to those with fluctuating mental health conditions such as anxiety. Ministers have indicated their aim is not to make savings but to stop the bill growing further. Overhauling the system without harming those dependent on payments, and without causing significant ructions with Labour MPs, will be one of Burnham’s trickiest balancing acts.
“Andy Burnham faces challenges on welfare, defence, tax and a left-wing revolt on immigration as PM.”
On defence, allies say Burnham accepts the current investment plan – which commits £298bn to buying weapons over four years – as “settled”, even though it requires finding an additional £4.7bn at the next budget. Longer-term questions remain over how he could fund the previous government’s promise to increase defence spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2035. One option considered but ultimately rejected by Starmer’s officials was to print “defence bonds” – new debt that could only be spent on defence.
On taxation, the Makerfield MP has promised to stick to Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges of not raising income tax, national insurance or VAT. However, he recently told LBC that there was “some room within that manifesto for movement on tax”, prompting speculation about which taxes he may seek to raise. The one tax Burnham has talked about changing is business rates, which he wants to refocus so large companies with out-of-town warehouses such as Amazon pay more.
Burnham also faces a new revolt from the left. According to allies, left-wing Labour MPs are urging him to ditch tough immigration reform. But allies insist the incoming PM understands the importance of controlling migration and is committed to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s tough stance.
The incoming PM will have to navigate these pressures while delivering on his promise of a “Rewired Britain” – the theme of his first and only policy speech since returning to parliament.
