Andy Burnham is ending his first week as prime minister by working out of Manchester in the new No 10 North for the first time – but the early fanfare of spending pledges has been overshadowed by questions over how they will be paid for.
BBC Verify has crunched the numbers on Burnham's first-week commitments, which total about £1.5bn. They include a £340m plan to end rough sleeping, an £850m VAT cut on domestic electricity bills, and a £500m bus fare cap that will reduce the maximum single fare from £3 to £2 from 1 January 2027 (excluding London).
“Andy Burnham's first week as PM sees £1.5bn in pledges for bus fares, VAT cuts and homelessness, but funding remains uncertain.”
But the Treasury's promise that the VAT cut would be funded by scrapping the previous government's digital ID scheme was immediately undermined by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which had already branded that scheme “unfunded”. The official spending watchdog's assessment implies the tax cut will still need to be paid for in the next budget – either by tax rises or cuts elsewhere.
The bus fare cap, meanwhile, will be paid for by replacing grants for international climate projects with loans – freeing up cash now, but potentially loading costs onto future budgets.
Angela Rayner, back in cabinet as housing secretary after serving as deputy to Sir Keir Starmer, captured the mood of the fledgling administration when she told the BBC's Today programme: “We are on borrowed time if we don't get a move on.”
Burnham has claimed his Manchester base represents “the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen” and that he will bring in “the biggest changes in the last 40 years”. But his early announcements, says the BBC's political editor Chris Mason, have been “considerably more piecemeal than that”. Mason noted that Burnham has been “both more sharp and more nimble” than Starmer in setting out his stall – but the substance remains thin.
The new prime minister's opponents are already sensing vulnerability. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, teased Burnham's informal style during an al fresco speech and news conference on a rooftop in central London on Thursday.
And the i newspaper's editor cautioned that Burnham's “fitness for the highest office remains unproven” and warned that soft-launching policies without explaining how they will be funded could cause “ructions”. A formal Budget is not expected until October.
Burnham can reflect on a solid enough start – but the fundamental questions remain unanswered: where will the money come from, and how much breathing room does he really have?