Andy Burnham could enter Downing Street on 20 July, just weeks after returning to Parliament, as Labour leadership nominations opened on Thursday with no other candidate in the race. The former Greater Manchester mayor is the only MP to have announced his intention to stand, and his path to the leadership was cleared when former defence minister Al Carns ruled himself out on Wednesday evening. A series of possible rivals, including Wes Streeting, have already thrown their weight behind him.
Under Labour’s rulebook, candidates need the support of 81 MPs. If Burnham secures 323 nominations, it would be mathematically impossible for a rival to reach the threshold. That would propel him into Downing Street without a vote by members or trade unions. The official handover would happen on Monday 20 July, after Sir Keir Starmer formally tenders his resignation to King Charles III.
“Andy Burnham is on course to become PM on 20 July as Labour nominations open with no rival.”
Burnham has offered some details of his blueprint for office. In a speech in Manchester last week, he proposed establishing a new No 10 unit in the city tasked with handing local government more control over housing and transport. In a Times article on Thursday, he confirmed he wants to keep former Blair aide Jonathan Powell as his national security adviser and called for a “sustained increase” in defence investment, without committing to a specific target. He also signalled a more muscular approach to utilities. A spokesperson said Burnham is “exploring all possible options for giving the public more control over essential services like water and energy”, describing the water industry as “a classic case of one where shareholders always win, and bill payers always lose”. The former Undertones frontman turned campaigner Feargal Sharkey, who backed Starmer in 2024 hoping for water nationalisation, said: “This privatisation has been an unmitigated, catastrophic disaster. There is no more road.”
The incoming prime minister inherits a daunting in-tray. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said almost all its forecast scenarios show public finances on an unsustainable path. Unfinished business includes the Defence Investment Plan, the under-16s social media ban, the EU reset, the ongoing cost of living crisis, expected energy bill hikes from the Iran war, and reform of the social care system. The Hillsborough Law, close to Burnham’s heart, must be passed, as must the government’s response to the Milburn Review on young people not in education, employment or training. Starmer’s digital ID system and proposals to limit trial by jury are still pending. Burnham has said “policy first” and has not yet decided who will be chancellor. His total preparation time since winning the Makerfield by-election 20 days ago is about two-thirds of the length of the 2024 general election campaign.
As Burnham consolidates his grip on power, Nigel Farage is hoping to change politics from the other end. The Clacton by-election, ignited by Farage, sharpens the battle between Reform and the Tories, with Labour and the Tories saying they won’t stand. The New Statesman notes that just as Burnham changed Labour politics with one by-election, Farage hopes to do the same after weeks of Reform plateauing. However, the danger for Farage is not losing but that the contest proves boring — for the great showman, that would be worse than being pursued over his finances.