A week after Sir Keir Starmer stepped down as prime minister, his successor Andy Burnham has secured a six-point Labour bounce in the polls — but polling experts warn the surge may be little more than a temporary honeymoon.
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister who returned to cabinet this week as housing secretary, set the tone on Friday with a blunt warning to the BBC's Today programme: "We are on borrowed time if we don't get a move on." The fledgling Burnham administration has spent its first days trying to find its feet and make a decent first impression, dropping early-morning policy nuggets from No 10 — business rates on Thursday, bus fares on Wednesday, and a VAT cut on electricity bills on Tuesday.
“Andy Burnham's first week as PM yields six-point Labour bounce, but polling experts warn honeymoon effect may fade.”
Burnham has also adopted a more informal style, posting videos of himself blind‑testing pub snacks and visiting pubs, all of which have fed into a "man of the people" image, according to the Independent. The impact has been immediate: polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice identified a six‑point bounce for Labour, with four points attributed to Burnham becoming PM and two to Starmer’s announcement that he would go. The party now tops three polls.
But Curtice sounded a cautionary note. "It does not necessarily translate into victory at the next election," he said, pointing to the pattern of similar bounces when unpopular leaders are replaced — John Major got seven points after Margaret Thatcher, Gordon Brown seven after Tony Blair, Theresa May four after David Cameron, Boris Johnson six after May, and Rishi Sunak four after Liz Truss. Only Truss received no bounce; she lasted 49 days.
Another polling expert, Lord Hayward, noted that the whole political discourse has changed. "We are no longer talking about whether Reform will be the next governing party but whether they can hold off a mini Tory revival as the main party of the centre right," he said.
Burnham’s early announcements have been piecemeal — he says his "10‑year plan for Britain" will come later in the year. He has created an Office of Prime Minister and established No 10 North in Manchester, claiming it represents "the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen" and that he will bring forward "the biggest changes in the last 40 years".
His opponents are recalibrating. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch gave an al‑fresco speech on a rooftop in central London on Thursday, teasing Burnham’s informal style — he "seems like a nice g…" (the BBC report cuts off).
Despite the bounce, polls remain neck and neck, which may mitigate against calling an early election. Burnham has also appointed John Healey as chancellor, a choice Lord Hayward said commands respect across Labour factions and in the markets.
Nigel Farage, meanwhile, has been struggling with questions about donations from a crypto billionaire and a convicted money launderer, further aiding Burnham’s positive start.
The question now, as the new prime minister prepares to assemble what Rayner called "a pride of mayors" for a meeting of the National Economic Council at No 10 North, is whether the feel‑good factor can last — or whether, as Curtice warned, it will evaporate as quickly as it arrived.