"I am ready, ready to lead," Andy Burnham declared as he accepted the Labour leadership on Friday, vowing nothing less than "the most significant change moment in our politics for 40 years." But the new prime minister inherits a daunting list of challenges that successive governments have failed to fix.
The cost of sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has swelled to £58bn a year since the pandemic and is projected to hit £78bn by 2030, driven largely by a surge in Personal Independence Payment (Pip) claims. The number of claimants is forecast to rise from four million today to five million by 2030, with a fast-growing share of younger people claiming for mental health problems or neurodevelopmental disorders like ADHD. A recent interim report by disability minister Sir Stephen Timms, co-produced with disability groups, concluded that Pip is "not fit for purpose."
“Andy Burnham promises 'most significant change in 40 years' but faces £58bn welfare bill and defence spending pressure.”
Burnham has said he wants to reduce the welfare bill, but "not through 'crude cuts'" — rather by encouraging people into work. Yet the final Timms report, due later this year, may propose offering young people therapy instead of cash, risking backlash from disability groups and Labour MPs.
On defence, the pressure is just as intense. Starmer's defence plan, published in June after a year's delay, only takes spending to 2.7% of GDP by 2030 and is not fully funded. Former defence secretary John Healey resigned over the issue, and the defence establishment is pushing Burnham to lift spending to 3% — which would cost an extra £9bn a year. A new Nato target of 3.5% by 2035 would add another £24bn annually.
Burnham has set his ambitions far beyond conventional political success. In his first speech as leader, he vowed to banish factionalism from the Labour Party for good and condemned "four decades of neoliberalism" for damaging working-class communities. He has promised to decentralise power, starting by relocating part of No 10 Downing Street to Manchester — a plan he calls "No 10 North."
But questions linger about how he will deliver. Burnham went out of his way in his speech to declare he has still not decided who will occupy the top jobs in his team, presumably including chancellor — a detail that some Labour MPs see as a niggling sign of indecision. "I have a plan," he insists. The country will soon find out whether that plan matches the scale of his promises.
