Argentina kicked off their World Cup defence with an emphatic win, yet they are not the best side at this tournament so far, according to BBC Sport's experts, who have ranked all 48 teams after the first round of fixtures. The defending champions sit third, behind the team that 'lived up to pre-tournament hype' and England, who scored four and 'could have had more'. Lionel Messi's presence and genius lift his team, but it wasn't enough to top the list.
Meanwhile, the United States delivered the shock of the round. Opta Analyst's pre-match predictions rated their game against Paraguay as the second-closest match of the opening set, but the USA laughed at the supercomputer, winning 4-1. Paraguay conceded the joint-second fewest goals in South American qualifying, yet allowed their hosts 53 touches in their penalty area – the second-most after Curacao against Germany.
“BBC Sport experts rank Argentina third despite emphatic win; USA stun Paraguay 4-1 against statistical predictions.”
Elsewhere, data from Opta reveals hidden stories. Mexico moved the ball upfield slower than any other team, able to take their time as South Africa offered no threat. South Korea's 25-pass buildup to Hwang In-beom's equaliser against Czechia was the joint-fifth longest passing sequence leading to a goal in World Cup history since records began in 1966. The match also featured a trademark of the 2025-26 Premier League season: a long throw-in from former West Ham defender Vladimir Coufal, headed home by Wolves centre-back Ladislav Krejci.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's set-piece prowess stood out: seven of their eight shots against Canada came from set pieces. Sergej Barbarez will need his team to generate more than one open-play chance per match. Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey and Uruguay dominated possession and final-third pass accuracy, but the quality of their chances was poor – a reasonable expected goals tally that looked far less impressive on closer inspection.
Cape Verde, making their World Cup debut, held Spain to a draw, becoming everyone's second team at the tournament thanks to an inspired performance by veteran goalkeeper Vozinha. The first round is over, but the data suggests plenty of surprises still to come.