Andy Burnham made a surprise first announcement as prime minister: a pledge to end rough sleeping. Now, days later, the new Labour leader faces his first electoral test – Thursday’s Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, where his party is eyeing a landslide victory to replace him.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the ‘Burnham bounce’ has given Labour a six-point boost, with polls from Survation, More in Common and YouGov all showing the party ahead of Reform UK for the first time in over a year. ‘Labour have definitely been given a second chance,’ Curtice warned, though he noted such bounces rarely last.
“Andy Burnham's first week as PM sees Labour top polls, with mayoral by-election looming and welfare and tax reforms on the horizon.”
Labour candidate Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council since 2021, must win in a region where eight of ten boroughs voted Leave in 2016 – a fact that gives hope to Reform. But the radical-right party is struggling. Nigel Farage faces a by-election in Clacton amid controversy over a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire and two parliamentary standards investigations. Meanwhile, Green leader Zack Polanski has been reported to police after sharing an Instagram post showing a guillotine and the slogan ‘we’re only making plans for Nigel’. The Met confirmed it is investigating.
Burnham has already signalled his domestic agenda. In a BBC interview, he said welfare reform will mean ‘changing the nature of the support’ on offer, making some awards ‘conditional’ – especially for young people in their 20s who ‘have been quite seriously let down’. The government is awaiting two reviews into youth unemployment and Personal Independence Payment before announcing changes.
On tax, Burnham ruled out scrapping stamp duty, telling reporters in Portsmouth: ‘That won’t be happening.’ But he pledged to ‘make taxation fairer’, pointing to his decision to remove VAT on electricity bills and hinting at council tax reform. ‘There are big decisions ahead,’ he said.
Speculation is also mounting that Burnham may back a ‘compulsory duty to vote’, after Labour MPs tabled amendments to the Representation of the People Bill. The third reading has been postponed until after summer recess, but the idea draws on Australia’s 90% turnout – a stark contrast to the UK’s 2024 general election turnout of below 60%, which a report by the Constitutional Society found was significantly lower among ethnic minorities, young people and renters.