The battle for Number 10 is over. An overwhelming number of Labour MPs have nominated Andy Burnham, and he crossed the threshold of trade union support today. He will move into Number 10 on Monday.
But the beneath-the-radar battle for Number 11 Downing St is continuing. Whoever Burnham appoints as chancellor — and next-door neighbour — will send a signal of his intent both to politicians and to the bond markets.
“Andy Burnham faces decisive choice for chancellor as battle for No 11 continues.”
The official line from team Burnham is that no decision has been taken. Announcements on cabinet posts are not expected until Monday.
Discussions have been taking place among a tight group: the next No 10 chief of staff James Purnell, Louise Haigh, and the former MP who stood aside for Burnham, Josh Simons. When Burnham won the subsequent Makerfield by-election, the widespread assumption was that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would move to the Treasury.
But there has been both noisy and more subtle attempts to influence Burnham's choice. Unions with workers in the oil and gas industry distrust Miliband's instincts. Sir Keir Starmer's unpaid ‘cost of living’ tsar Lord Walker, the boss of Iceland, argues that the bond markets would “freak out” if an “ideological” chancellor was installed.
In recent days, a number of MPs close to Burnham — who have no animus to the energy secretary — believe the likelihood of appointing Miliband has lessened significantly. The caveat is that they are not making the decisions, but discerning the mood.
Those close to Miliband believe it is not only highly possible that he will still be appointed but highly desirable too. They point to his credentials: an economics background, adviser in the Treasury under Gordon Brown, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and ministerial experience in the last Labour government and this one. “He can make the Treasury do what it doesn't want to do,” a colleague put it.
Miliband has offered advice to Burnham regularly and recently, and would be in lock-step with Burnham in spreading growth “to every postcode”. As for the bond markets, one supporter stressed his adherence to fiscal rules; another put it more colourfully: “He isn't Che Guevara.”
Many in the parliamentary party would expect him to move to Number 11. If he isn't, some on the party's soft left will think that Burnham has refused the first fence in the race to change Britain.