Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, is on course to become the UK's next prime minister as soon as 20 July, just weeks after returning to Parliament via a by-election. He remains the only Labour MP standing to replace Sir Keir Starmer, who announced he was stepping down, with potential rivals standing aside to support his bid.
In his first speech since launching his leadership bid on 29 June in Manchester, Burnham promised the biggest-ever "rebalancing of power" away from Whitehall, branding the UK one of the "most over-centralised countries in the world". He would hand a new No 10 unit based in Manchester the task of giving English regions more control over housing and transport, and extend devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by taking power "deeper down". The unit would promote "equivalent living conditions" across Britain, borrowing from the German constitution.
“Andy Burnham could become PM on 20 July, but faces tension between his domestic rebalancing plans and unavoidable global crises.”
Burnham also wants to enable all parts of the UK to take "greater public control" of water and energy sectors, with 10-year plans to reduce costs. He pointed to Greater Manchester's bus network as an example, though he has yet to spell out what an equivalent model for utilities would mean in practice. He has been at pains to say his plans do not necessarily mean full nationalisation, but has advocated direct public ownership for Thames Water, a move already on the cards after the government objected to a rescue deal in June.
Yet as Burnham eyes Downing Street, tensions are already emerging over his ability to balance domestic priorities with international demands. According to the New Statesman, Burnham thinks Starmer spent too much time abroad and will not seek the same global profile. Starmer, smarting from what he perceives as a political and personal betrayal, has pointedly suggested Burnham may find it hard to organise his time that way given the intertwined nature of domestic and international affairs.
The first internal battle will be over whether Burnham attends the UN General Assembly in New York in September, which bumps against Labour Party Conference. Then comes the UN Climate Change Cop summit in Turkey in November. "Can we afford to cede the ground to the Greens or Lib Dems on climate, particularly if we've just decided to drill in the North Sea?" his team will ask. "Can't we fit in a visit to Ukraine before Christmas, lest we risk losing a leadership role painstakingly built over the previous five years?" they will add, as European leaders travel to Kyiv for crucial talks.
National security, the New Statesman notes, is not only the first job of every prime minister but also one of the few areas where sovereign decision-making is genuinely consequential. Should Burnham spend much time in the new No 10 North or attend Everton games, the pressures on his diary will grow. The question remains: can he deliver his radical domestic agenda while navigating a centralised world of foreign policy?
