The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, signed last month in a tentative deal that never fully held, has now tipped into war. At its heart lies the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, and Iran is making clear that its control over this corridor is a non-negotiable red line.
“We told you: keep your word or pay the price,” Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on social media, quoting the agreement. That agreement—a hastily drafted memorandum of understanding—has been interpreted differently by both sides from the start. Point five says Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels.” Tehran sees this as a green light to manage the strait; Washington reads it as an obligation to keep it open for global oil and gas supplies. “You can drive a truck through those clauses,” an Arab oil executive working in the region said.
“Dubai plans new port at Fujairah to bypass Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks on vessels escalate.”
Within Tehran, splits are emerging. “Some want to cash in on battlefield gains through diplomacy and some believe the ceasefire came too soon before Iran had inflicted enough pain on the US,” said Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group. Recent Iranian attacks on three vessels, including a Qatari-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker, were described by a diplomatic source as the work of a “rogue unit” within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran’s red line is that vessels must stick to its designated routes. Last night, its parliament quietly introduced a new bill.
In response, Dubai is planning a major shift. Port operator DP World is in talks to develop new facilities in the coastal area of Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The project, reported by the Financial Times, would reduce dependence on the UAE’s flagship Jebel Ali port, which was struck by debris from an Iranian missile earlier this year, sparking a blaze. Plans include a new terminal at the existing harbour and a brand new multipurpose port.
“Jebel Ali will continue to be Jebel Ali. It will never be downsized,” a senior company official told the FT. DP World is expected to invest hundreds of millions of dollars initially. “We do have our own plan, and we’ve been very active in terms of looking at the eastern coast as far as DP World is concerned. It’s defensive in case things go wrong,” the official added.
The attacks have been relentless. As of April 2026, the UAE news agency estimated that Iran had fired 438 ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, and 19 cruise missiles at targets in the country; the FT puts the total at nearly 3,000 drones or missiles. On Monday, another tanker was hit by an Iranian missile 13 nautical miles southeast of Oman’s Limah, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Two Emirati oil tankers were struck by cruise missiles, killing one Indian crew member and wounding eight. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said they struck two “offending supertankers” that ignored warnings and turned off navigation systems while attempting to pass through “a mined route.” Donald Trump has reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed charging a 20 per cent fee for transit.
As the fighting intensifies, Dubai’s new port plan offers a hedge against a future where the strait may remain closed—but whether the investment can keep pace with the escalation remains an open question.