Hundreds of prisoners—including some convicted of serious sexual and violent offences—could soon be released early from jails across England and Wales, sparking outrage from victims' groups and a political row between the government and opposition.
The early release scheme, designed to relieve unprecedented prison overcrowding, would have seen about 700 prisoners freed in its first phase in September 2026. But after a fierce backlash from survivors and victims, Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced he was pausing the scheme last week. Now Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is calling for emergency legislation to stop the releases altogether, arguing that the government's review will not prevent dangerous offenders from being released.
“Why the UK is releasing prisoners early despite public outcry — and what it means for safety.”
The roots of the crisis go back years. Prison overcrowding was described by the last Conservative government as an urgent problem, leading to early releases in 2023—first for 18 days, then for 70 days. By early July 2024, when Labour came to power, fewer than 100 spare prison places remained across the adult male estate. The new government then launched a wider scheme, releasing 60,108 prisoners early between September 2024 and December 2025. Labour blamed the Tories for failing to build enough prisons.
Under the government's new Sentencing Act, passed in January 2026, another 6,000 prisoners were due to be released at various stages starting from September. The act excludes the most serious offenders—such as murderers serving life sentences or those on extended sentences—but eligibility for early release is based on the length of a fixed sentence, not the type of offence. This means some criminals convicted of serious sexual and violent offences who have a fixed release date will leave prison earlier than expected, though they will be subject to monitoring and can be recalled.
For UK readers, the practical impact is direct: public safety concerns are at the heart of the debate. Victims' groups have voiced anger that offenders who committed serious crimes could walk free months earlier than planned. Conservative shadow justice minister Kieran Mullan accused the government of being "extremely dishonest" about its release plans, telling the BBC that claims serious offenders would not be released were not true. Badenoch, speaking at a press conference alongside affected victims, said: "It's quite clear that the prime minister sees that this is a problem, but I don't think he knows what to do about it."
At the same time, the political stakes are high. Recent polls show Labour has a narrow lead over Reform—4 per cent according to More in Common, while YouGov has them level pegging. That's a recovery from the dire polls under Keir Starmer, but analysts caution it could be a short-term boost. Both Labour and the Conservatives are weighed down by poor brand reputations, and Reform's threat is fading after peaking at 33 per cent last autumn. The early release controversy could test Burnham's leadership as he tries to navigate between prison capacity pressures and public safety.
Q: Why are prisoners being released early? Because of severe prison overcrowding. When Labour took over in July 2024, there were fewer than 100 spare places in adult male prisons. The government says the early release scheme is necessary to avoid a complete breakdown of the system, which it blames on the previous Conservative government's failure to build enough prisons.
Q: Who is eligible for early release? The scheme applies to prisoners serving fixed sentences. It excludes the most serious offenders like murderers on life sentences or those on extended sentences. However, it can include people convicted of serious sexual and violent offences if they have a fixed release date. Those released are subject to monitoring and can be recalled to prison.
Q: What has the government done in response to the backlash? Prime Minister Andy Burnham paused the September 2026 release plan and announced a review. He said he would do anything to minimise risk to the public. But the Conservatives say the review won't stop offenders already due for release and are calling for emergency legislation to keep serious offenders behind bars.
What happens next is uncertain. Burnham has said further statements on the September release plan will be made "in due course." Badenoch is pressing for fast-track legislation, and the political debate over public safety versus prison capacity is likely to intensify. Meanwhile, the government is still grappling with the legacy of overcrowding, and the next few weeks will determine whether the pause becomes a permanent stop or simply a delay.