When Lionel Messi netted Argentina's first goal of the 2026 World Cup on 17 June, the crowd at a packed watch party in Dhaka erupted. Not a single Argentine was among them: the fans jumping in albiceleste shirts were locals in Bangladesh's capital, one of many open-air gatherings across the city. Similar scenes played out in India and Indonesia, where Messi and his teammates have been adopted by fans whose own nations have repeatedly failed to qualify.
Eight of the world's ten most populous countries are absent from the current tournament. Only the United States and Brazil made it; Russia and Nigeria have appeared at several previous editions. China and Indonesia have taken part just once each. India, the most populous nation, along with Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Pakistan, have only dreamed of joining — although India technically qualified for the 1950 World Cup but withdrew less than a month before kick-off.
“Eight of the ten most populous nations are absent from the World Cup, sparking outrage from fans and experts.”
"It is simply unacceptable that a country with millions of football fans should lag so far behind in football," said Audite Karim, a renowned Bangladeshi actor, writer and football fan.
Why does population size so poorly predict success? In theory, more people means a larger pool of athletes. Seven of the eight nations ever to win the World Cup — Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain — have relatively large populations. The only exception is Uruguay.
But population alone is insufficient, explained Stefan Szymanski, a British academic and economist. "Football is very similar to how national economies work. For them to thrive, you need people. But then you also need capital and infrastructure," said Szymanski, co-author of the best-selling book Soccernomics, which analyses data on sporting success. "In football, that means training facilities and the ability to find talent."
Wealth is another common denominator. Szymanski and co-author Simon Kuper found that countries typically need "a minimum annual average income per capita of $15,000 to win anything". Yet Brazil and Argentina, well below that threshold, have combined for eight titles. That, Szymanski argued, shows the importance of a third factor: know-how.