England must first overcome Argentina in Atlanta if they are to reach their first World Cup final since 1966, but the question already being asked by fans is: who would they rather face – France or Spain?
France’s frightening attacking prowess has been on full display at this World Cup. Didier Deschamps’ side have won all six matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding just two. They have not conceded a single goal in the knockout rounds, brushing aside Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco without ever looking close to losing control.
“England must beat Argentina to reach first World Cup final since 1966, with France or Spain waiting.”
Kylian Mbappe is the biggest reason why. Across the tournament he is averaging 1.28 goals and 0.48 assists per 90 minutes – 1.76 goal contributions every game – alongside 0.90 expected goals, 1.44 key passes and 5.91 touches inside the opposition penalty area. Despite missing a penalty against Morocco, his finishing has been relentlessly consistent.
Spain, meanwhile, have been the meanest side at the World Cup, conceding just one goal from six games. Lamine Yamal is ominously still working up to the top gears we all know he’s capable of.
Spanish journalist Guillem Balague said: “France – the best player and the most frightening attack. Argentina – the best idea: doing more with less than anyone else. England – two world-class players on form. All four semi-finalists have what is needed to win the tournament.
“If Spain take the ball off France and stop their counters – plus if they are more efficient than they have been – they have a very good chance of making it to the final. But they have to play the perfect game, with the perfect (or a very good) Lamine Yamal.”
Balague added: “A final of Spain v England would be incredible. And in a way a win-win for me, but I would like England to win a World Cup soon. This could be the summer.”
Phil McNulty, BBC Sport’s chief football writer, offered a more cautious view: “I would love to be able to say England, but the evidence of what we have seen so far in this World Cup tells me France will make up for losing to Argentina in Qatar in 2022 by lifting the trophy this time. England will, in my opinion, reach the final for the first time since 1966 by beating Argentina. But it is very hard to see past France.”
For Thomas Tuchel’s side, the immediate task is clear: beat Argentina and then face either France or Spain in the final. The data suggests France are more dangerous going forward, but Spain’s defence has been nearly impenetrable. England have two world-class stars on form, but they are still trying to find their identity. The semi-final against Argentina will be the true test of whether this could finally be England’s summer.