England and Scotland are on a collision course for a dramatic last-16 meeting at the World Cup in Mexico City on 6 July (01:00 BST), according to BBC Sport's projections tool. As it stands, England sit top of Group L, while Scotland are third in Group C. But with the final round of group fixtures beginning on 24 June, that path could shift depending on results elsewhere.
Co-hosts Mexico became the first nation to qualify for the knockout stage and are assured of top place in Group A. South Korea need only a draw against South Africa on Thursday (02:00 BST) to secure second place. If South Korea lose, they will be eliminated if the Czech Republic beat Mexico; if the Czechs do not win, South Korea will finish third and must wait to see if three points are enough. The Czech Republic and South Africa both have one point and must win to qualify – four points would almost certainly send them through as a third-placed side.
“England and Scotland are projected to meet in the World Cup last 16 on 6 July in Mexico City.”
BBC Sport has developed an in-game projection tool to help fans navigate the complex tiebreaker rules. With 32 of the 48 teams advancing, the top two from each of the 12 groups automatically progress, joined by the eight best third-placed teams. If teams are level on points, head-to-head results are used first, followed by goal difference, goals scored, Fifa's disciplinary Team Conduct Score, and finally the higher Fifa ranking from June's update.
Scotland face Brazil in their final group match, and England take on Panama. Should both advance as projected, the two nations would meet in the round of 32 – a fixture that would capture the imagination of British football fans. The tournament runs until the final on 19 July.