The path to the World Cup final on 19 July is taking shape, and it could lead to a last-16 meeting between England and Scotland in Mexico City on 6 July at 01:00 BST – but only if both sides win their last-32 ties first. England sit top of Group L, while Scotland finished third in Group C after a 3-0 defeat by Brazil that has left their hopes of progressing as one of the best third-placed teams hanging by a thread.
Sixteen of the record 48 teams will be eliminated at the end of the group stage, leaving 32 nations in the mix for the trophy. The top two from each of the 12 groups advance automatically, joined by the eight third-placed teams with the best records. With new tie-breaker rules in place, staying across the permutations is far from simple. If teams are level on points, head-to-head results are the first tie-breaker, followed by goal difference, goals scored, Fifa's Team Conduct Score – a disciplinary metric for red and yellow cards – and finally whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June's published update.
“Scotland's World Cup hopes hang by a thread after Brazil defeat, but England await in potential last-16 showdown.”
Co-hosts Mexico became the first nation to qualify for the knockout stage, winning Group A with a 100% record. El Tri will host a third-placed team from Groups C, E, F, H or I in the last 32 on Tuesday. South Africa made history by beating South Korea 1-0 in their final group game to climb into second place and reach the knockout stage for the first time. They will play Canada in Los Angeles on Monday. That result left South Korea third in their group with three points – they must now wait to see if that is enough to send them through. Switzerland won their group with seven points after a 2-1 victory over Canada, clinching a last-32 tie against a third-placed team in Vancouver. Czech Republic finished bottom with one point.
The Guardian has launched a bracketology interactive tool that allows users to click their way through the group stage and knockouts to crown a champion. With dates and times listed across three host countries and four different time zones, planning early alarms has never been easier. For now, Scotland's fate rests on the results of other groups – and the chance of a historic all-British clash in Mexico hangs in the balance.