England face Croatia in their World Cup curtain-raiser on Wednesday, and while pundits pile pressure on the Three Lions to start in style, Machine Football’s data analysis model has produced a four-leg Bet Builder priced at 50-1.
The model, which uses the latest player performance metrics, backs England to win with both teams scoring. Croatia, ranked 11th in the world, remain dangerous on the counter-attack – as shown against France in the Nations League – and 40-year-old Luka Modrić scored in their most recent game against Slovenia.
“Machine Football's data model predicts a 50-1 bet builder for England's World Cup opener against Croatia.”
Harry Kane, England’s captain, averaged 3.65 shots per 90 for Bayern Munich last season and 4.70 in warm-up matches against New Zealand and Costa Rica. He scored 60 goals last season and ranks in the top 1% globally for finishing and attacking contribution, according to the Machine Football model. Kane is also among the Bundesliga’s elite for attacking positioning.
Thomas Tuchel has made set-pieces a priority, and his decision to pick John Stones – who ranks in the top 1% globally for heading ability – signals how seriously he takes dead balls. Marc Guehi, by contrast, sits in just the 48th percentile for defensive headers among centre-backs. Stones could start ahead of Guehi, if the line-up against Costa Rica was any guide.
Marcus Rashford, who averaged 3.16 shots per 90 for Barcelona and helped them to the LaLiga title, also took 4.31 corners per game for the Catalan side.
Croatia’s centre-backs face a daunting task against Kane: Joško Šutalo picked up just one yellow card in 24 Eredivisie appearances, but his partner Luka Vušković is still only 19 and committed 30 fouls in 28 Bundesliga appearances while on loan at Hamburg.
All odds were correct as of 14:30 BST on Tuesday 16 June 2026.