Nigel Farage's gamble to resign as MP for Clacton and force a by-election has backfired spectacularly, with his personal approval ratings crashing to their lowest level and Reform UK's poll lead evaporating. The vote, triggered by Farage's decision to quit and then stand again, will be held on 13 August – a week later than his party had hoped.
The acting returning officer, Ian Davidson, confirmed the date after Tendring District Council received the writ on Friday. "The electoral timetable is set out by law and so we are bound by these dates," he said, urging residents to register and check they have valid ID. Nominations open on Monday with a deadline of 17 July.
“Nigel Farage's approval ratings hit -27 as Reform support drops; Clacton by-election set for 13 August.”
But the contest is already shaping up as a humiliation for the Reform leader. None of the main Westminster parties are fielding candidates, viewing his resignation as a stunt. That leaves the highest-profile opponent as Count Binface, the comedy candidate, alongside actor and political activist Laurence Fox and several local residents.
Farage said he was the victim of a witch-hunt as Parliament's standards commissioner, Daniel Greenberg, probes his failure to declare a £5 million gift from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before the 2024 election. Questions have also been raised over financial support he received from convicted fraudster George Cottrell.
The political damage is already evident. An Opinium poll published on Saturday night shows Reform's support has fallen two points to 24%, while Labour trails on 19%, the Tories on 18% and the Greens on 16%. Farage's personal approval rating has plummeted to minus 27 – "comfortably his lowest ratings of this parliament", according to Opinium's James Crouch. "For the first time this parliament, Nigel Farage looks politically vulnerable," Crouch said. "The standards row appears to be taking a real toll."
Even if Farage wins the by-election – and given the field, he almost certainly will – the investigation will resume the day he returns to Westminster. If he is found to have breached rules and suspended for 10 days or more, his constituents could launch a recall petition, triggering a second by-election. This time, the main parties have indicated they would contest it.
For now, Farage faces the prospect of a hollow victory over a bin. The question is whether his voters in Clacton – 58% of whom turned out in 2024 – will bother to show up at all.