Two matches on Friday night could decide England's World Cup fate – and Thomas Tuchel's side will not even be playing.
England, top of Group L on four points after a win against Croatia and a goalless draw with Ghana, could seal a place in the knockout stages before Saturday's final group game against Panama. The reason lies in the format of the expanded 48-team tournament, which Fifa designed to get from 48 teams down to a symmetrical 32 in the knockout rounds.
“England could reach World Cup last-32 without playing due to format allowing eight best third-placed teams to advance.”
Under the old 32-team format, only the top two from each group advanced. Now, the eight best third-placed teams also go through. That change has created a system where, as the BBC's football issues correspondent put it, "it became harder to be knocked out than to progress."
England need only four of the 12 groups to have a third-placed team finish on three points or fewer. Already, South Korea in Group A and Scotland in Group C are on three points. Three more matches on Friday could provide the necessary results.
In Group D, Australia and Paraguay meet – both currently on three points. The loser will finish on three points. In Group F, Sweden have three points but face Japan; a Japan victory would leave Sweden on three. In Group E, the only way the third-placed team finishes on four points is if both Ecuador beat Germany and Curacao beat Ivory Coast – any other result would leave the third-placed team on three or fewer. If any two of those scenarios occur, England are through.
This lack of jeopardy is a recurring theme. The BBC notes that in the group stage, "there is limited peril" because third-placed teams can still progress. South Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa on Wednesday but are still likely to reach the last 32. At the 2022 World Cup, they would have been eliminated.
Fifa originally planned 16 groups of three teams, but abandoned the idea because the final match in each group would allow collusion – a lesson from the 1982 World Cup, when West Germany and Austria played a 1-0 result that sent both through at Algeria's expense. Fifa switched to 12 groups of four, but the safety net of eight third-place slots has diluted the drama.
For England, topping Group L remains the goal. They will finish top if they beat Panama and better Ghana's result against Croatia. If they win and Ghana draw or lose, England claim first place. That would mean facing the third-placed team from Group E, H, I, J or K. If they finish second, they would face the second-placed team from Group K – currently a shootout between Colombia and Portugal.
Either way, the Three Lions may already have their passport stamped for the last 32 before they even step on the pitch in Panama.