Voters in Greater Manchester head to the polls on Thursday to elect a new mayor – a contest that will test whether Labour’s poll lead under Andy Burnham can survive in the party’s own heartlands.
The election comes just as Burnham completes his first week as prime minister, a week that handed Labour its first opinion poll lead in 16 months. According to a More in Common survey carried out between 24 and 27 July, Labour has a four-point lead over Reform UK, ending the latter’s 16-month run at the top. Luke Tryl, boss of More in Common, said it was “clear that momentum is on the Prime Minister’s side”, adding: “Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024.”
“Greater Manchester elects a new mayor as Labour tops polls for first time in 16 months under new PM Andy Burnham.”
Labour’s candidate to replace Burnham is Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council. She faces a tougher task in the other nine boroughs. While Labour has often won across the city region, support varies: at a time when Labour held 95 of 96 council seats on Manchester City Council, eight of the ten Greater Manchester boroughs voted leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum. This may give hope to Reform UK, but the party’s fortunes have stalled. Hannah Spencer took Gorton and Denton for the Greens in a recent by-election, while Burnham romped to victory in Makerfield for Labour. Meanwhile, Reform leader Nigel Farage is embroiled in controversy over his finances and a Parliamentary Standards investigation into a £5 million undeclared ‘gift’ from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. Farage resigned as MP for Clacton to force a by-election he called a “people versus the establishment” fight, but every other party declined to take part, leaving novelty candidate Count Binface as his main rival.
Burnham became the inaugural elected mayor in 2017 and was re-elected twice, each time outpolling his party. His resignation after winning a by-election paved his way to Downing Street. Craig, who has led the city council since 2021, has filled big shoes before: her predecessor Sir Richard Leese was in charge for more than a quarter of a century.
Beyond the mayoral race, speculation is mounting that Burnham might push for compulsory voting. The third reading of the Representation of the People Bill – which would lower the voting age to 16 and tighten campaign finance rules – has been postponed until after parliament’s summer recess. Two Labour MPs, Antonia Bance and Bell Ribeiro-Addy, have tabled amendments on introducing a “compulsory duty to vote”. Proponents point to Australia, which introduced the rule in 1924 and now enjoys turnout rates of 90 per cent. In contrast, turnout for the 2024 UK general election was below 60 per cent – falling to 53 per cent when unregistered eligible voters are included, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research. The Constitutional Society’s 2025 report Universal Suffrage? found turnout was significantly higher among voters who were white (by 13 percentage points), wealthy (22), older (34) and outright homeowners (36), compared with their counterparts. The report warned that “low and unequal turnout can no longer be seen as merely a symptom of democratic malaise, but must now be understood as a contributing factor” that warps political incentives and undermines trust.
For now, all eyes are on Greater Manchester. The result on Thursday will show whether Labour’s momentum under Burnham can hold – or whether the left’s perennial problem of unequal turnout will reassert itself.
