With the World Cup 2026 kick-off days away, Guardian writers have delivered their predictions – and almost no two agree on the final. The one constant, according to Alexander Abnos, is Spain. “I’ve played our Bracketology game 20 times and gotten 20 different paths but Spain always end up winning,” he said, picking Spain and Portugal in the final with Spain victorious. Ella Brockway also sees Spain triumphing, against Argentina in a “toss-up” she resolved by coin flip. Jeff Rueter envisions Spain beating first-time finalist Portugal, while Paul MacInnes has England meeting Spain – with Spain winning. “This expresses a sudden rush of optimism about England despite several months of poor form and a belief that Spain’s squad is more rounded than France’s,” MacInnes said.
Not everyone is convinced by La Roja. Nick Ames ran a simulation that produced France versus Argentina, and he picks France. Ben Fisher goes for France over Portugal. Barry Glendenning says Spain will meet France, but the French will prevail. David Hytner also backs France to beat Argentina, citing Didier Deschamps’ attacking talent. Ewan Murray forecasts a repeat of the France-Argentina final but with a different outcome – France take the trophy. Osasu Obayiuwana thinks France’s strength in depth wins them a third title, possibly against Argentina again. Max Rushden admits confusion: “When I plotted it out a few weeks ago I had France beating Argentina – but since then more knowledgeable people say Argentina aren’t any good. So Spain. Or France. Or, no I won’t say it … could we?”
“Guardian writers predict Spain and France as favourites, with a few backing England despite poor form.”
Bryan Armen Graham offers the boldest England prediction: “England to beat France. They are deep and talented, have a manager whose strengths translate well to knockout football, at least appear to be prepared for the conditions and, crucially, possess the institutional experience that comes from runs to the quarter-finals and beyond at the last four major tournaments.” The optimism comes despite England’s poor recent form, as MacInnes noted. Meanwhile, World Cup fever builds across the UK, with England preparing for their final warm-up friendly. Scotland has already announced a one-off bank holiday during the group stages, sparking questions about whether England would follow suit if they win the tournament. The tournament’s opening game is days away, and the Guardian’s Bracketology tool has seen countless simulations – yet no consensus emerges. As Rushden hinted, could this be England’s year? The writers remain divided, but the drama is only beginning.