Just 23 tankers and cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler – a plunge from 47 a week earlier, as fresh US-Iranian strikes shattered a fragile deal to reopen the world’s most vital oil and gas artery.
The drop follows a series of tit-for-tat attacks that began when three ships using a US-recommended route through Omani waters were struck earlier this week. Iran has long insisted that the only “safe” passage is a separate route through its own waters. After a war that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, the two sides signed a deal on 17 June that included steps to re-open the Strait and lift Washington’s naval blockade. Traffic briefly recovered to a peak of 72 ships on 24 June.
“Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz halves after new US-Iran strikes shatter June truce.”
But the truce unravelled quickly. Iran set out a system of lanes through the north of the waterway, close to its coast, and demanded all traffic use them. The US-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) instead recommended a route through southern Omani waters. By 25 June, more vessels were taking the Omani route than the Iranian one.
Then came the strikes. On 25 and 27 June, two ships in Omani waters were hit. Iran’s top military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, reiterated: “The only safe route for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers in the strait is the route determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran.” President Donald Trump accused Iran of a “foolish violation” of its truce and ordered US strikes on Iranian targets.
Before the conflict began, an average of 138 ships crossed the Strait each day, according to the JMIC, a multinational group including the US. More than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, along with fertiliser and other vital goods, flow through the narrow waterway. The deal lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports, but Iran has insisted on its right to control movement and introduce fees – a position opposed by the US, Gulf allies, and European and Asian governments.
With traffic now at a fraction of pre-war levels and both sides trading fire, the question is whether the Strait can ever return to free and open passage.