Just 23 tankers and cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, maritime intelligence firm Kpler recorded – down from 47 a week earlier, as a renewed cycle of violence between the US and Iran chokes one of the world’s most vital waterways.
The sharp decline follows a series of tit-for-tat strikes after three tankers using a US-recommended route through Omani waters were hit earlier this week. Iran has repeatedly insisted that the only safe passage is through its own waters, a position its top military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, reiterated after the attacks: “The only safe route for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers in the strait is the route determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
“Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz halves after new US-Iran strikes, falling to 23 vessels from 47 a week earlier.”
Before the conflict began, an average of 138 ships crossed the strait each day, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational group including the US. More than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, along with fertiliser and other vital goods, flow through the narrow channel. After the US and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran on 28 February, traffic fell to just a handful of ships per day. Iran effectively closed the strait by attacking vessels and laying mines, while the US responded with a blockade on all shipping to and from Iranian ports.
A deal to end the war, signed on 17 June, included steps to reopen the strait. Washington agreed to lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Traffic initially recovered, peaking at 72 ships on 24 June. But the peace was fragile. Iran set out a system of lanes through the north of the waterway, close to its coast, insisting all vessels must use them. The JMIC instead recommended a southern route through Omani waters. For a time, the Omani route grew busier, reaching 28 ships on 25 June – overtaking the Iranian lane.
Then, on 25 and 27 June, two ships in Omani waters were struck. Iran warned all vessels to use only its routes. President Donald Trump accused Iran of a “foolish violation” of the truce, and the US military conducted strikes on Iranian targets.
The violence has sent shipping firms scrambling. With the Omani route now perilous and the Iranian route the only one Tehran deems safe – but one the US and its allies oppose – the number of transits has fallen by more than half in a week. The question now is whether any route can remain secure enough to keep the world’s oil and gas flowing.