Iran has shot down a US Apache helicopter, two crew members rescued by American forces, as the war launched by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu risks spiralling into a long, attritional 'permacrisis', the BBC's international editor Jeremy Bowen has warned.
Trump threatened consequences after the downing near Oman, according to Politico. The crew survived; had they been killed, a much harsher response would have been likely, Bowen noted. The incident is the latest reminder that Iran's rulers 'can still hurt the Americans' and will not budge in their determination to emerge from the war on top.
“Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter as the war risks a long, attritional permacrisis.”
The Islamic Republic has proved 'a much harder nut to crack' than Trump and Netanyahu assumed, Bowen wrote. Their judgement was wrong, and they have lost control of the consequences. The risk now is of a long permacrisis that will lurch in and out of outright conflict.
When they led their countries to war with Iran on the last day of February, both leaders issued video statements reflecting an assumption that a moment of historical change was coming. In the small hours at Mar-a-Lago, Trump told the Iranian people: 'To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.'
The next morning, Netanyahu stood on the roof of the Kyria, Israel's defence ministry in Tel Aviv, and spoke as if victory was certain: 'This coalition of forces allows us …'
But Iran has not been defeated. For its rulers, victory equals survival and enhanced deterrence, in the shape of acknowledgment of their control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic waterways. Trump has been banking on a deal with Iran to reopen the strait and agree the terms of much longer-term talks over the big issues, including Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. The war is unpopular in America, and he wants a way out he can present as a victory. It is proving to be a tough challenge.
Bowen concluded that Trump and Netanyahu are learning an old lesson: it is easier to start a war than to end one with a clear victory.