Israel’s defence minister has promised to continue the military assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, a move Iran considers a breach of the ceasefire agreement with the US, even as Tehran remains divided over whether to walk away from negotiations entirely.
At least 12 people were killed Monday by strikes on southern Lebanon, pushing the death toll since March above 3,500. While Israel said it was stopping attacks on Iran for now, the offensive against the Iran-backed militia continues — a decision that threatens to unravel the fragile indirect dialogue between Tehran and Washington.
“Israel continues assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon as Iran debates abandoning ceasefire talks with US”
Iran’s reversion to large-scale military exchanges with Israel, which began in February, has already broadened the conflict. For the first time, Israeli attacks on Hezbollah became a direct casus belli for Iran, and the confrontation has drawn Yemen's Houthis back into the fray with as yet incalculable consequences. The chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz has emboldened some in Tehran who, buoyed by past perceived military success, see this moment as the point of no return in the conflagration with Israel.
A minority would welcome abandoning the ceasefire talks with the US, an outcome they have agitated for over weeks. But other voices argue that Iran can instead exploit the tensions between Israel and the US to accelerate a deal from a US president desperate to extricate himself from a war that is turning into an alarming show of American diplomatic and military impotence. Donald Trump’s social media post urging Iran and Israel to stop firing at each other did not reek of a man in control of events, and Iran’s decision to announce it was ending its operations — so long as there were no further Israeli attacks — showed the advocates of all-out war are in the minority.
Hesamodin Ashna, an adviser to former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, argued in a speech this weekend that social cohesion and trust inside Iran were still fragile. His camp says the return of Iran’s frozen assets and the gradual lifting of US sanctions are imperative to rescue the Iranian economy from near-collapse, arguing that the economic situation was the incubator for the protests in January.
At his weekly press conference, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, was forced to ride both horses. He challenged the idea that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had mounted the attacks on Iran in defiance of Trump, but then suggested Israel might be trying to sabotage the talks because it fears the terms of the deal would weaken it. Baghaei was careful to insist that the dialogue with the US, conducted indirectly via Pakistan, was continuing and had not been suspended.
As the Israeli campaign in Lebanon grinds on, the question hanging over Tehran is whether the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Houthis’ renewed involvement will embolden those who see no turning back — or whether the imperative of saving an economy on the brink will keep the door to a deal open.