Donald Trump has claimed a peace deal with Iran is close 37 times in three months — but the war rages on. The US president, speaking at the NBA finals in New York on Tuesday, said a settlement could come “in two or three days” and would prohibit Iran from having nuclear weapons and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet hours earlier, Israeli airstrikes killed eight people in Lebanon, and Iran’s state TV reported two members of its military air defence unit were killed in Israeli attacks. The cycle of violence continues, making Trump’s pledges increasingly hard to take at face value.
The war between Israel and Iran, backed by the US, erupted in February 2026. Since then, the US, Israel and Iran have traded strikes, with Iran firing ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel bombing Iranian cities. A US-brokered ceasefire has been in place since April, but it has repeatedly frayed. On Sunday, Israel launched a major attack on southern Lebanon, prompting Iran to warn that attacks on Lebanon would end any ceasefire and bring a “more severe” response. The same day, Trump told the BBC that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not defied him by striking Iran, because the missiles were “already on their way” when they spoke.
“Explains Trump’s repeated claims of an imminent peace deal with Iran amid ongoing war, why they matter, and what each side wants.”
This is not the first time Trump has promised an imminent deal. He has made similar claims 37 times since the conflict began, according to a count by Metro. Mediators led by Pakistan have tried to secure a deal, but both sides have taken hard-line positions. The US wants Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — believed still entombed after American air strikes in a 12-day war in 2025 — while Iran demands relief from sanctions and the release of frozen assets before any final agreement. Trump has rejected that.
For UK readers, the conflict has direct consequences. The war has already caused instability in the Middle East, a region where the UK has strategic interests and from which it imports oil. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, has been disrupted, affecting global energy prices. UK servicemen and women are deployed in the region as part of international coalitions. Moreover, British-made components have been found in Iranian drones, raising questions about UK export controls. The UK government, alongside France and Germany, has been pushing for a diplomatic solution but has struggled to influence events.
Q: Is a peace deal between the US, Iran and Israel actually close? Trump has claimed a deal is just days away 37 times since the war began, but no agreement has materialised. Experts such as Dr Katayoun Shahandeh of the University of London argue that Trump’s statements are “political theatre” rather than genuine diplomatic breakthroughs.
Q: What does the US want from Iran in a deal? The US wants Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which it believes remains in Iran after American air strikes. Trump also insists the deal must prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Q: What does Iran want? Iran demands relief from economic sanctions and the release of its frozen assets, even before a final agreement is signed. It has also warned that any attacks on Lebanon would end the ceasefire and provoke a “more severe” response.
What happens next is uncertain. Trump said the two sides “both agreed, through me, to stop” after the recent exchange of strikes, and that negotiators are “in the final throes” of a deal. But Israel issued evacuation orders for the Lebanese city of Tyre on Tuesday, suggesting further strikes on Hezbollah targets are imminent. Iran has promised to respond if its territory or Lebanon is attacked. The pattern of Trump claiming peace is near while violence continues seems likely to persist until a genuine breakthrough — or a complete breakdown — occurs.