Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain on Wednesday as Iran escalated its campaign against the Gulf states, shifting focus from the United Arab Emirates — which suffered the largest number of Iranian attacks during open conflict with the US in March and April — to Bahrain and Kuwait.
Tehran’s strategy is deliberate, according to analyst Ghuloom. “The first, I would say, is the long-standing historical tensions between Iran and these two countries. With Bahrain, there is this historical, propaganda-driven claim by Iran over the country.” Animosity towards Kuwait intensified after it arrested agents of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attempting to enter the country, he said.
“Iran shifts attacks to Bahrain and Kuwait to sow confusion among Gulf states, analyst says.”
Video footage released by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Sepah News website on 14 July allegedly shows a missile being launched towards US targets in Bahrain and Kuwait. “It is therefore politically advantageous within Iran to target Bahrain and Kuwait because of these historical tensions,” Ghuloom added. “I think the second reason relates to the small geographical size of these two countries. Iran can succeed in creating a climate of fear without too much effort.” Explosions from intercepted drones and missiles can be heard across both countries, spreading fear among populations.
Critical infrastructure in Kuwait, including electricity supplies and water desalination facilities, has been successfully targeted, while the situation in Bahrain has been more contained. “The fact that critical infrastructure in Kuwait – the electricity supply and water desalination facilities – has been successfully targeted is a frightening scenario that is becoming a reality,” Ghuloom said.
However, attacks limited to Bahrain and Kuwait are unlikely to prompt a collective Gulf response, Ghuloom believes. The two countries cannot convince other Gulf states to retaliate while diplomatic channels remain open — including behind-the-scenes diplomacy, direct US-Iran mediation, and regular talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran mediated by China. “I think all these factors show that Iran is pursuing a rather aggressive strategy of sowing confusion amongst the Gulf states by targeting only Bahrain and Kuwait and not the others,” he said.
Despite the attacks, populations in Bahrain and Kuwait have shown resilience, with no widespread panic. “They want it to end,” Ghuloom noted. The broader Gulf alliance remains fragmented: “Some Arab states are 'more on the same page with the U.S. mission than others,’” a Republican aide told Politico, underscoring the difficulty of forging a united stance as Iran’s targeted campaign continues.