Oil prices plunged 4.4% in a single day after US President Donald Trump claimed a “great settlement” with Iran was imminent—but Tehran insists nothing has been finalised. This is the latest twist in a conflict that has seen tit-for-tat strikes, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and global energy markets on edge.
The basics: The United States and Iran have been locked in a direct military confrontation since 28 February 2026, when the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel and US-allied Gulf states and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which a huge share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. A ceasefire was agreed in April but has repeatedly frayed, with intermittent exchanges of fire, including two rounds of strikes this week. Trump has simultaneously threatened to hit Iran “very hard” and talked up the prospects of a deal.
“Explains the US-Iran conflict, peace deal claims, and what it means for UK energy and stability.”
Background: The current crisis is the latest chapter in decades of US-Iran animosity. The 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) limited Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, but Trump withdrew the US from that deal in 2018, calling it flawed. After years of tensions, including attacks on tankers and oil facilities, the situation escalated dramatically in early 2026. The US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February; Iran responded by attacking Israel and Gulf allies and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a ceasefire in April, both sides have continued to trade blows. Trump has repeatedly claimed a deal is near, but no final agreement has materialised.
Why it matters for UK readers: First, energy prices. The conflict has already pushed up oil prices: Brent crude was at about $89 a barrel after Trump’s latest deal claim, but prices have surged repeatedly during the fighting. Higher oil prices feed into petrol and heating costs, as well as the wider economy through inflation. Second, UK defence. UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned amid questions about how Britain is preparing for a more unstable world. The G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, next week is expected to discuss the conflict, and the UK will be closely involved. Third, global stability: a prolonged conflict risks disruption to shipping, energy supply chains, and regional security, all of which affect British interests.
Q: Has the US-Iran war ended? Despite Trump’s claim that “we ended the war with Iran,” Tehran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says “nothing has been finalised.” Substantial parts of a memorandum of understanding have been agreed, but Iran’s decision-making bodies are still reviewing the proposal. So as of now, the war has not officially ended.
Q: What would a peace deal involve? According to Trump, the “great settlement” includes Iran forgoing nuclear weapons—both development and purchase—and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not a party to the memorandum, wants “the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for terrorist proxies.” However, Iran has not confirmed these terms and stresses it will not compromise on its red lines.
Q: Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and a third of its LNG passes. Iran effectively closed it after the February strikes, disrupting global energy supplies. Trump has said the Strait will open “as soon as we have it signed,” but until a final deal is reached, shipping remains restricted, keeping oil markets volatile.
What happens next: A signing ceremony could take place in Europe as early as this weekend, according to Trump. The documents are said to be in “pretty final shape,” but Iran has yet to give final approval. The G7 summit next week in France will likely address the conflict. Meanwhile, the US naval blockade remains in force “until this Transaction is finalized,” and Iran has warned it will not compromise its red lines. The world will be watching to see whether this time the deal is real—or just another false dawn.