For the first time since a ceasefire in April, Israel bombed sites in Iran over the weekend, after Iran fired missiles at Israel in what Tehran said was retaliation for Israeli strikes on Beirut. The escalation came despite US President Donald Trump's call for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold fire, threatening to thrust the Middle East back into direct confrontation between Tehran and Washington.
Trump told the BBC on Monday afternoon that Israeli planes were "already on their way" when he spoke with Netanyahu. In a brief phone call, the US president denied the Israeli PM had defied him, saying: "If I tell him to do something, he does it." Yet on the face of it, Trump failed to stop Netanyahu – another escalation in a tense series of exchanges between the two leaders.
“Israel bombed Iran despite Trump's call to hold fire, raising questions about US control and Tehran's leverage.”
Last week, Trump reportedly dished out an expletive-laden rant at Netanyahu, calling the Israeli leader "crazy" for wanting to attack Beirut. Netanyahu said those strikes were necessary amid the Hezbollah threat against northern Israel. Trump felt his behaviour threatened his own attempt to reach a deal with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and secure assurances on Iran's nuclear programme. In an interview with the New York Post, Trump said he was perturbed by Netanyahu's "constantly fighting with Lebanon."
So did Netanyahu defy Trump with the latest strikes on Iran? Although that's one prevailing narrative, the answer is almost certainly no. Israel's subsequent actions suggest Washington at least gave limited consent, but as the president would see it, proceeding with caution and pushing for one round only. As veteran US negotiator Aaron David Miller told the BBC, Trump gave Netanyahu a "blinking yellow light." As a practical matter, Israel could not have attacked Iran without at least Washington's tacit approval.
The US currently has its biggest military buildup in the region since the invasion of Iraq, with hundreds of military personnel in Israel liaising with the Israel Defense Forces. The current web of fractious alliances and dysfunctional ceasefires shows how dangerously destabilised the region remains, more than three months after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran. The escalation could also strengthen Tehran's negotiating hand, though the precise impact remains uncertain.