Voters across Greater Manchester head to the polls on Thursday to elect a new mayor — a contest that will test Andy Burnham’s political inheritance as he enters his second week as prime minister. Labour’s candidate is Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council, who must win over a region where eight of ten boroughs voted Leave in 2016 and where Reform UK has been gaining ground.
The election comes as Burnham’s first week in No 10 appears to have shifted the national mood. According to a More in Common poll conducted between 24 and 27 July, Labour now leads Reform by four points — the first time it has topped a survey since March 2025, ending 16 months of Nigel Farage’s party at the front. “It is clear that momentum is on the Prime Minister’s side,” said Luke Tryl, the pollster’s director. Labour’s vote share is its highest since early 2024, while Reform and the Greens have dropped to their lowest in months.
“Andy Burnham's Labour gains four-point lead over Reform UK as voters choose new Greater Manchester mayor.”
Burnham spent his first week announcing measures aimed at the cost of living: a £2 bus fare cap for England, removing VAT on electricity bills, and a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and small music venues. The poll suggests that “this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters that Labour has lost across left and right”, Tryl added.
Reform, meanwhile, has been embroiled in controversy over its finances. A Parliamentary Standards investigation was launched into Farage over a £5m “gift” from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne that he did not declare before the 2024 election. Farage resigned as MP for Clacton to force a by-election, framing it as a “people versus the establishment” fight — but every other party declined to take part, leaving novelty candidate Count Binface as his main opponent.
The Greater Manchester mayoralty was vacated after Burnham won the Makerfield by-election last month, paving his way to Downing Street. He had been the region’s first elected mayor since 2017, winning three times and outpolling his party in every borough. Now Labour faces a tougher task: in this year’s local elections, Reform and the Greens made ground, and the Liberal Democrats regained control of Stockport.
Beyond the immediate election, speculation is mounting that Burnham may push further electoral reforms. The third reading of the Representation of the People Bill — which would lower the voting age to 16 and tighten campaign finance rules — has been postponed until after the summer recess. Two Labour MPs, Antonia Bance and Bell Ribeiro-Addy, have proposed amendments introducing a “compulsory duty to vote”, citing Australia’s 90% turnout since 1924. In contrast, UK turnout for the 2024 general election was below 60%, falling to an estimated 53% when unregistered eligible voters are included. A 2025 report by the Constitutional Society found that turnout was significantly higher among white, wealthy, older and homeowner voters, skewing policy away from those who stay home. “Low and unequal turnout can no longer be seen as merely a symptom of democratic malaise,” the report warned, “but must now be understood as a contributing factor.”
For now, all eyes are on Thursday’s ballot — and whether Bev Craig can replicate Burnham’s ability to unite a divided region.