Marine Le Pen will learn on Tuesday whether her political career is over — or whether she can still run for the French presidency next year. At 13:30 Paris time (11:30 GMT), the Paris appeal court is due to deliver its verdict on the embezzlement conviction that barred her from public office for five years and left her facing a four-year jail term, two years of it to be served at home with an electronic tag.
The 57-year-old leader of the far-right National Rally has led the opinion polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with the first round set for 18 April and a run-off on 2 May. If the appeal fails, her young lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old National Rally president, will stand in her place — a prospect that has caused anxiety within the party.
“Marine Le Pen faces appeal verdict that could bar her from 2027 French presidential race.”
“There will be a tremendous amount of work involved in putting together a completely different campaign,” said a National Rally heavyweight, speaking anonymously. “Everything has been built around Marine Le Pen for the past 20 years. We’ll have to redo everything.”
Le Pen was found guilty on 31 March 2025 of embezzling €1.4m (£1.2m) in European Parliament funds to pay her own party employees from 2004 to 2016, instead of hiring parliamentary assistants. She was a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2017. The court ruled that she had “approved or tolerated” the fake jobs scheme and barred her from the 2027 election.
During the appeal, heard in January and February, Le Pen denied organising the scam but admitted to “a mistake” that led to some aides working “for the benefit of the party”. Prosecutors have asked for the original five-year ban to stand, along with a four-year jail term that now includes one year with an electronic tag and three years suspended.
Le Pen has said she is “not afraid” of the decision but believes it is “not possible” to run for president if the judges decide she must wear a tag. She has painted herself as a victim of French justice, singled out for a “difference in treatment”.
If barred, Bardella would be thrust into the role of presidential front-runner, given his strong polling numbers. “Jordan doesn’t have the same experience as Marine, but it’s extraordinary what he has achieved at his young age,” said National Rally lawmaker Alexandre Sabatou. “We are here to shake things up, we’ve got appetite and energy.”
But some in the party fear his inexperience could be an opportunity for rivals. “He’s going to have to convince people that a 30-year-old can be trusted with the nuclear codes,” said a conservative adviser backing the Les Républicains candidate, as quoted by Politico EU.
Le Pen has run for president three times, coming second to Emmanuel Macron in 2017 and 2022. She took over the far-right National Front from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2011, aiming to “detoxify” the brand, and expelled him in 2015 over his Holocaust views. She rebranded the party as National Rally in 2018 and led it to its best-ever election performance in 2024, winning 143 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly as part of a hard-right alliance.
Tuesday’s verdict will not only decide Le Pen’s future but effectively fire the starting pistol on the presidential race. Should the court bar her, she has indicated she is unlikely to drag the legal saga further, clearing the way for Bardella.