Imagine a future prime minister being judged not by voters alone, but by how they look to the Kremlin. That is the “Moscow test” – a phrase coined by Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the former Chief of the Defence Staff, to describe the benchmark for UK defence policy in an era of heightened global threats.
Andy Burnham, the favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, is likely to be the first leader to face this test. Radakin told the BBC that whoever becomes PM must operate “almost like a wartime prime minister” and ensure the UK’s defence plans are credible in the eyes of Russia, NATO allies, and the United States. The test sits alongside Burnham’s own “Makerfield test” – a promise that any new legislation must benefit the constituency he now represents – and highlights the balancing act between local priorities and national security.
“Explains the 'Moscow test' for UK defence, Andy Burnham's challenge, and the Defence Investment Plan.”
The immediate context is the UK’s long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP), a 10-year capital spending blueprint expected before the NATO summit in Turkey on 7 July. The government has pledged to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but funding shortfalls have already caused turmoil. Defence Secretary John Healey resigned earlier this month after failing to secure more than £13.5 billion to plug an £18 billion gap in the plan. His successor, Dan Jarvis, is believed to have secured about £1 billion extra after further haggling with the Treasury. Radakin warned that if the DIP is “not enough”, the next prime minister will have to find more money during this parliament.
Radakin’s intervention is rooted in a simple strategic question: “What do we look like to Moscow? Do we look like a strong member of the NATO alliance? Do we look like a strong nuclear power? Do we look like a strong ally of America? Because those are the elements that keep us safe.” He said the UK currently “falls short” on those commitments, and that weakens the UK’s hand with allies and emboldens adversaries. The UK’s military capabilities, he added, are “too bare” in terms of day-to-day operations: stores, maintenance, ship availability, and aircraft readiness.
For UK readers, the Moscow test is not just about tanks and missiles. It affects the country’s security guarantee from NATO, the special relationship with the United States, and the credibility of the UK’s nuclear deterrent. It also has direct economic implications: defence spending competes with other departmental budgets. In the recent haggling, other departments took a 1% cut to their capital budgets to free up money for defence. Burnham’s allies say they would rather the current row was resolved so the DIP is published now, but they have not ruled out reopening the plan if he becomes PM.
Meanwhile, the race to be Burnham’s chancellor adds another layer of uncertainty. Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell has said Ed Miliband would make a “good” chancellor, but some in the party worry that appointing the former leader – known for his relentless net-zero focus – could unsettle markets. Others note that Burnham’s commitment to fiscal rules and tax pledges might signal a more orthodox choice. The decision will shape how the Treasury balances defence spending against other priorities.
Q: What is the “Moscow test”? The Moscow test is a phrase used by former Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin to assess whether UK defence policy is strong enough to deter Russia. It asks whether the UK looks like a capable NATO member, a credible nuclear power, and a reliable US ally.
Q: Who is likely to be the next chancellor under Andy Burnham? Ed Miliband is the frontrunner, backed by Lucy Powell, but some in Labour worry his climate agenda could spook markets and big business. Burnham has not yet made a final decision; his upcoming economic speech may offer clues.
Q: What is the Defence Investment Plan (DIP)? The DIP is a 10-year capital spending plan for the Ministry of Defence, covering major programmes like ships, aircraft, and armoured vehicles. It is due to be published before the NATO summit on 7 July, but funding disputes have delayed it. The government aims to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035.
What happens next? The DIP is expected this week, with Burnham due to give a major speech on the economy and devolution on 30 June. The NATO summit in Turkey on 7 July will be a key deadline. If the plan is deemed insufficient, Burnham may have to reopen funding negotiations – a decision that will define his early premiership and determine whether he passes the Moscow test.