Vladimir Putin will never agree to a peace deal in Ukraine because it would cost him his power – and his life – Britain’s leading anti-corruption campaigner has warned. “If he does a peace deal, he’ll lose power. If he loses power, then he’ll get strung up from a lamp post,” said Sir Bill Browder, who once ran the biggest investment fund in Russia and has fought the Kremlin for nearly two decades.
His warning comes as Nato leaders met in Ankara and agreed to let Ukraine produce its own Patriot air defence missiles – a vital capability for withstanding Russian attacks. But Browder argues the war is not about Nato or Russian-speaking minorities; it is a desperate survival strategy. “A trillion dollars, thousand billion dollars has been stolen by Putin and the thousand people around him from the Russian state,” he said. The money should have gone to schools, hospitals and roads, “instead, it was spent on private jets and yachts and villas in the south of France”. Over time, Browder said, Putin realised he had stolen so much that one day “people would get really angry really quick, would organise very quickly, and march on the Kremlin”.
“Putin will never make peace because it would cost him power and his life, warns Sir Bill Browder”
Russia has already endured over 1.2 million casualties in the war. Yet Browder insists Putin cannot afford peace: “He can target people and kill them or imprison people or deport people on a one-off basis. But if a million people march on Red Square, he’s finished.” The only way to prevent that, he said, is to “create a foreign enemy, and you start a war. And that’s the reason why this war is not going to end.”
Meanwhile, Western leaders are trying to keep the narrative alive. Ursula von der Leyen declared “the tide is turning” – a line copied verbatim by politicians and commentators across Europe. Ukraine has escalated its drone-strike campaign deep inside Russia, hitting logistics, fuel depots and refineries in cities including Moscow and St Petersburg, and causing numerous civilian casualties. On Monday, Moscow suffered its largest drone attack so far. President Zelensky announced a 40-day operation to “influence the aggressor state in order to press for an end to the war”. The EU released the first €3.2 billion of a €90 billion loan to support Ukraine’s effort.
The timing is no accident. The Nato summit in Ankara is a platform for the pro-war lobby to argue that Ukraine is winning. Even Donald Trump appears to indulge the narrative, signing a G7 statement that committed to more air defences, long-range capabilities and tougher sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Yet war fatigue is mounting: the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary refused to finance the EU loan; Bulgaria’s new government prohibited arms supplies. As Browder put it, with the US drifting away from Nato, Ukraine’s role is becoming ever more critical – but peace remains as distant as ever.