Eight of the 16 matches at this year's World Cup have ended level — a record for the opening stage of any tournament, surpassing the previous high of seven set in 1974, 1982 and 1986. Monday's quartet of fixtures all finished without a winner for the first time since 15 June 1958, with Spain held 0-0 by Cape Verde, Belgium drawing 1-1 with Egypt, Saudi Arabia sharing a 1-1 result with Uruguay and Iran playing out an entertaining 2-2 draw with New Zealand.
The expanded 48-team format may have diluted the jeopardy. With only 16 of the 48 teams eliminated after the group stage, an opening draw carries less risk than in previous tournaments. Nations could qualify for the last 32 with just three points — three draws would almost certainly secure qualification. According to Football Meets Data, with three points, a goal difference of -1 offers an 87.5% chance of progression. That drops to 69.4% with a -2 difference, and 47.3% at -3.
“Record eight draws in 16 World Cup matches as European teams struggle with seven of 10 failing to win.”
European teams, expected to dominate, have struggled. When Belgium drew with Egypt on Monday they became the seventh of 10 European nations to fail to win their opening match. Germany, Scotland and Sweden are the only three to kick off with wins, beating Curacao, Haiti and Tunisia, respectively. England, Croatia, France, Norway, Austria and Portugal are still to play their opening games.
The heat in North America has been cited as a potential factor. Belgium's draw with Egypt in Seattle was played on what was forecast to be one of the hottest days of the year in the city, with temperatures climbing above 30C at a lunchtime kick-off. Belgium boss Rudi Garcia refused to use the conditions as an excuse, saying: "Whether it is 10 degrees or 30 degrees, we should have done better." He did, however, acknowledge the impact on the playing surface, adding: "The grass really needed watering. It was very dry and as a result it was slowing the ball down."
Switzerland coach Murat Yakin also pointed to his side's wastefulness rather than the conditions after a 1-1 draw with Qatar, despite his team generating 26 shots and an expected goals figure of 3.24.
With more European teams yet to play, the pattern raises a question: is the World Cup's drama being sapped by the format, or are the conditions and opponents simply raising the bar?