Reform UK’s opinion poll lead has evaporated amid mounting questions over Nigel Farage’s personal finances, after reports that he failed to declare support from a convicted fraudster before entering Parliament.
Research by Ipsos UK published this week showed the party’s lead over Labour has shrunk to just two points, down from seven points a month ago. Support for Reform stands at 26%, down one point, while Labour jumped four points to 24%. The Conservatives are third on 18%, followed by the Greens on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%.
“Reform UK's poll lead collapses as Farage faces scrutiny over undisclosed support from convicted criminal”
The collapse follows revelations that Farage received financial support from George Cottrell, a longtime ally who was jailed for eight months in the US in 2017 after pleading guilty to wire fraud. According to the Sunday Times, Cottrell paid for staff who provided Farage’s security and worked on his social media content ahead of the election. Farage also used a property near Buckingham Palace rented by Cottrell.
Farage has not declared any of this support in the register of members’ interests. He argues he was not obliged to do so under Commons rules, which require MPs to declare gifts or benefits received in the 12 months before their election that relate to parliamentary or political activities, unless they are “purely personal”. The rulebook states: “If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered.”
The latest scrutiny comes just months after the Guardian revealed that Farage received a £5m personal gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire, in April 2024, before he entered Parliament. Farage failed to declare that sum either, and the parliamentary standards commissioner has been investigating since May. Harborne has donated £15m to Reform since the start of last year, making him one of the party’s most important financial backers.
Farage has branded the coverage an “establishment hit job” and a “witch-hunt”, a claim echoed by allies such as former donor Arron Banks and deputy leader Richard Tice. But opposition parties are calling for a further parliamentary probe after the Cottrell reports. Lib Dem MP Josh Babarinde has reported Farage to the standards commissioner.
Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, said: “With Labour narrowing the gap with Reform UK, public doubts over whether Reform UK or the Conservatives are ready for government and Andy Burnham preferred as prime minister to Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, Labour will be more optimistic about the future than they were a month ago. However, the jury is out with the public on whether Burnham himself is ready to be prime minister.”
The poll also showed that 30% of voters would prefer Andy Burnham as prime minister, compared with 16% for Farage and 13% for Badenoch. Labour’s surge is being described as a “Burnham bounce” before Keir Starmer steps down on 17 July. But for Farage, the question remains whether his party’s momentum can survive the deepening scrutiny of his finances.