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Why Russia is escalating ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine — and what it means for the UK

Russia's massive ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine, including hypersonic weapons, threaten European security and UK interests.

World

Why Russia is escalating ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine — and what it means for the UK

In the early hours of a July morning, residents of Kyiv heard air raid sirens, then the roar of air defences, and finally the thunder of dozens of explosions as Russia launched one of its biggest ballistic missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital since the full-scale invasion began. The five-hour assault, which involved about 40 Iskander-M and hypersonic Zircon missiles, killed at least 20 people across Ukraine and injured more than 140, according to Channel 4 News. This wasn't an isolated event — it was the latest escalation in a pattern of intensifying strikes that is reshaping the conflict.

Ballistic missiles, such as the Iskander-M, are weapons that travel on a high-arcing trajectory, reaching speeds of several times the speed of sound. Hypersonic Zircon missiles, which can fly at Mach 8 or more, are even harder to intercept because of their speed and manoeuvrability. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the attack on Kyiv as “one of the most massive ballistic attacks” since 2022. The strikes hit residential and non-residential buildings, including a supermarket, a dormitory, and a logistics hub near Kyiv. In Kharkiv, a postal terminal was hit, killing four men. A Turkish-owned civilian cargo ship carrying grain was also struck in the Black Sea, killing at least five people.

Russia's massive ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine, including hypersonic weapons, threaten European security and UK interests.

These attacks are not happening in a vacuum. They are part of a broader strategy by Russia to degrade Ukraine's energy infrastructure, military capabilities, and civilian morale. Ballistic missiles are particularly effective against hardened targets because they carry large warheads and can penetrate defences. Ukraine has been asking its Western allies for more advanced air defence systems to counter them. Meanwhile, Ukraine has responded by striking Russian oil infrastructure. Zelensky said Ukrainian forces hit three Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Black Sea and three oil depots in southern Russia, calling them targets that “finance Russian aggression”. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported that its terminal was hit, suspending oil loading.

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For UK readers, this matters because the war in Ukraine directly affects European security and energy prices. Russia's use of ballistic missiles, including hypersonic ones, shows that it is willing to escalate both the technology and the brutality of its strikes. The UK has been a key military supporter of Ukraine, providing training, weapons, and intelligence. A prolonged conflict also puts strain on global grain supplies — the attack on the grain carrier in the Black Sea could disrupt exports, pushing up food prices in the UK. Furthermore, any spillover or miscalculation involving NATO members would have immediate consequences for British security.

Q: What is a ballistic missile and why is it different from a cruise missile? A ballistic missile is launched on a high trajectory, arcing into space and then descending at high speed, making it difficult to intercept. Cruise missiles fly lower, at a constant speed, and can be shot down by air defences. Iskander-M and Zircon are both ballistic; Zircon is hypersonic, meaning it travels at more than five times the speed of sound.

Q: Why is Russia using hypersonic missiles now? Hypersonic missiles like the Zircon are harder to defend against because they are extremely fast and manoeuvrable. Russia uses them to overwhelm Ukraine's increasingly effective air defence systems, which have been reinforced with Western-supplied Patriot and NASAMS batteries. By using a high volume of missiles, Russia aims to degrade Ukrainian morale and infrastructure.

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Q: How has Ukraine responded to these attacks? Ukraine has struck Russian oil infrastructure in the Black Sea and southern Russia, including tankers and depots, in an attempt to cut off the revenue that funds Russia's war effort. President Zelensky said these were “precise hits” designed to bring the war to an end.

What happens next depends on whether Russia can sustain this tempo of missile attacks and whether Ukraine can repair its air defence stocks. The UK and its allies are likely to increase military aid, particularly air defence systems. The conflict shows no signs of de-escalation; both sides are digging in for a protracted war of attrition.

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