Scotland’s World Cup hopes hang by a thread after a 3-0 thrashing by Brazil in Miami – a defeat that exposed the dangers of a format designed for expansion, not jeopardy.
Vinicius Jr’s brace and Matheus Cunha’s second-half strike sealed Brazil’s comfortable victory, sending them top of Group C. Morocco’s 4-2 win over Haiti kept them in second, leaving Scotland third on three points with a goal difference of minus three.
“Scotland's World Cup hopes hang by a thread after a 3-0 Brazil loss, with the expanded format criticised for reducing jeopardy.”
The Tartan Army now face a nervous wait. Currently the sixth best third-placed team, Scotland would meet Mexico in the last 32 – but with 20 group matches still to be played, they could easily slip out of the top eight and be eliminated.
The wait is made more excruciating by the quirks of the expanded 48-team tournament. With 12 groups of four, the top two teams qualify automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed sides. It is a system that, as the BBC’s football issues correspondent noted, has “removed much of the jeopardy that made the last World Cup so gripping”.
South Korea know this only too well. A shock 1-0 defeat by South Africa on Wednesday sent Bafana Bafana into the knockout stage for the first time, but South Korea are still likely to reach the last 32 as a third-placed team with three points and a goal difference of -1. At the 2022 tournament, that result would have sent them home.
The format’s flaws were foreshadowed by the 1982 scandal, when West Germany and Austria played out a 1-0 win for the Germans that eliminated Algeria. Fifa later changed rules so final group games are played simultaneously – but with 48 teams, the safety net of third-place qualification has created new opportunities for collusion.
Two matches this week present the chance for teams to play out a draw to qualify or even pick opponents. It is a “real test of the format”, according to the BBC.
For Scotland, the test is whether they can hold on to a knockout place without kicking a ball. Manager Steve Clarke stormed out of a post-match interview after the Brazil defeat, according to reports. The Tartan Army can only watch, hope – and pray that the expanded tournament’s maths does not send them home.