Steve Clarke’s squad head to Miami on Wednesday for what may be the most glorious week in Scottish football history — a week in which they could lose to Brazil and still make the knockout rounds for the first time.
Scotland have not registered a shot on target in their last game and a half at this World Cup, managing only two overall. Che Adams, the principal striker, has touched the ball three times in the opposition box in 146 minutes. Their sole goal came from a double deflection less than half an hour into the opening game. On Friday, they failed to have a shot on target for the first time at a World Cup since 1986. Since the last European Championship, they have managed five shots on target in five tournament matches, with their three goals coming from two deflected shots and one own goal.
“Scotland can qualify for World Cup knockout stage even if they lose to Brazil, if other results fall their way.”
Yet the football data experts believe their chances of progressing are high. The mad psychology, as BBC Scotland’s chief sports writer Tom English puts it, is that win, lose, or draw, this might be the moment they finally escape the group stage. A first-ever win over Brazil would spark a Tartan Army carnival in Miami. A draw would do the same. But even defeat could be enough — if the right results arrive elsewhere.
Scotland need to be one of the four best third‑placed teams. According to the Mirror, five specific results would guarantee qualification even if Brazil beat them: Mexico beating the Czech Republic, South Korea beating South Africa, a draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar, Egypt beating Iran, and Uruguay losing to Spain, since Uruguay are yet to win. If four groups produce third‑placed sides on fewer than three points, or on the same tally but with a worse goal difference, Scotland march on.
Brazil may still field Neymar, as they look to top the group. Clarke’s side have been preparing in Miami, where the heat could mirror the conditions of their 1982 meeting with Brazil, according to South American football expert Tim Vickery. Former Scotland international Steven Naismith has said he believes they can “get the job done”.
Does the end justify the means? Tom English asks: “Is the bottom line everything? Does the end justify the means? Never mind the quality, just rejoice in the qualification?” A strange kind of glory, perhaps — but after so many near misses on goal difference, Scotland may not care how they arrive.