Steve Clarke’s men finished third in Group C with three points and a goal difference of -3 after a dispiriting 3-0 defeat to Brazil – and now face an agonising wait to determine if they’ll make it into the knockout rounds for the very first time. Their fate is out of their hands.
Scotland opened their campaign with a win over Haiti before a slim 1-0 loss to Morocco, but the heavy loss to Brazil leaves them clinging to the eighth and final third-place qualifying spot. Ecuador’s stunning 2-1 triumph over Germany in Group E – Gonzalo Plata the hero for La Tri – has already pushed the Scots down into that precarious position.
“Scotland need at least four results to go their way after finishing third in Group C with -3 goal difference.”
From 12 groups, only the best eight third-placed finishers progress to a Round of 32. Scotland need at least four results to go their way over the coming days, and may not know their fate until Sunday when the final group stage matches, including Group J’s fixtures, are completed.
South Africa’s victory over South Korea in Group A and Ecuador’s win over Germany are already significant blows that have severely narrowed Scotland’s route. Now, specific scenarios must unfold in each of the remaining groups.
In Group I, a draw between Senegal and Iraq would be ideal; Iraq would need to win 3-0 to qualify while even a one-goal win for Senegal would be enough. Scotland require a draw or a narrow Iraq win. In Group H, a victory for Spain against Uruguay would leave the third-placed team on only two points, meaning Scotland need a Spain win. Egypt must beat Iran in Group G to give Scotland a chance – a win for Egypt would leave the third-placed finisher with fewer than three points. Group L requires Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals. And in Group K, a draw between DR Congo and Uzbekistan, or a win for Uzbekistan by a narrow margin, would help.
With Belgium and other big nations also potentially reliant on the third-place route, the Tartan Army face an anxious watch as the group stage reaches its epic climax. Scotland’s progress is entirely dependent on results elsewhere – and they won’t know until the very end.