Scotland stand on the brink of history but also of an agonising limbo: win against Brazil on Wednesday and they are through to the knockout stages automatically, but a defeat could leave them waiting until Sunday to learn their fate. With 32 of 48 teams advancing from this expanded World Cup, it is harder to be eliminated than to qualify – but Steve Clarke’s side are in one of the tournament’s toughest groups, alongside Morocco and Brazil. They have three points from two games and a goal difference of zero, the same as Sweden, who top the table of third-placed sides. The eight best third-placed teams go through, and Scotland currently sit second in that mini-league. The teams outside the top eight – the Czech Republic, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Senegal – are in danger of going home.
The danger for Scotland is a heavy defeat by the five-time world champions in Miami. According to Opta, a team finishing third with a goal difference of zero has a 95% chance of progressing. Lose by one goal and the chances drop to 84%; lose by two, 63%; by three, 42%; by four, 27%; by five, just 19%. A draw would all but seal their progression, but beating Brazil is unlikely to be simple. The frustration, however, is that Scotland play their final group game on Wednesday and will have a long wait to discover their fate. If they lose, they may not know until about 05:00 BST on Sunday when Group J finishes. That puts Scotland at a disadvantage: teams playing later in the week will have more idea of what result is needed, and can play for a draw or limit the scale of a defeat to protect their goal difference.
“Scotland must beat Brazil or risk a long wait to learn if their three points are enough to advance as one of the best third-placed teams.”
If Scotland lose and finish with three points, they will need results to go their way – they will want as many groups as possible where the third-placed team finishes on fewer than three points. For now, Clarke’s side can only focus on what they can control. But with the clock ticking and the margin for error razor-thin, Scotland must do it in style or face a weekend of nervous scoreboard-watching.