Scotland fans are no strangers to pondering permutations. But after John McGinn fired his side to a first World Cup win in 36 years, the conversations have already started — in that most Scottish of ways. Win your first game, immediately think you'll probably lose the next two, and wonder if you're out already.
The 1-0 victory over Haiti at Boston Stadium leaves Steve Clarke's side top of Group C after the opening round, with Brazil and Morocco trailing in their wake. But while history beckons — a first ever progression out of a major tournament group stage — arithmetic suggests the road ahead is perilously narrow.
“Scotland top Group C after first World Cup win in 36 years, but qualification depends on goal difference.”
Everyone had this down as a must-win, purely because Scotland were likely aiming to be one of the best eight third-placed teams from the 12 groups. But sitting top of the section was not something many would have imagined. The doomsday scenario remains real: lose to both Morocco and Brazil, finish third, and then it comes down to goal difference.
Because the win in Boston was by just a single goal, Scotland now arithmetically cannot finish on three points with anything other than a negative goal difference. According to Football Meets Data, a goal difference of -1 offers an 87.5% chance of progression — that would be the reality if the Scots lost by a single goal in their final two games. That drops to 69.4% with a -2 difference, and 47.3% at -3. Another goal against Haiti could have meant finishing on a goal difference of zero, which would have brought a 96% chance.
That is where Scotland's ineffective attack could prove costly. Their expected goals (xG) at the Boston Stadium was 1.05. Aside from McGinn's goal and Scott McTominay hitting the post, there was little else. Often the set-piece deliveries were poor — resulting in a set play xG of 0 — with the saving grace being Scotland's defence stood up well to some fraught pressure to keep a clean sheet.
"Winning games at major tournaments isn't something Scotland do regularly," said former Scotland talisman James McFadden on BBC Scotland. "The resilience shown — that's what has been forged in this group. It wasn't enjoyable but I would have taken an ugly 1-0 win beforehand. The next two games are going to be tough, but they have dealt with the pressure of this game."
The permutations will be calculated and recalculated. But one thing is certain: Scotland's fate rests on how many goals they concede — and whether they can conjure just one more.