The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 21-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global energy supplies. It handles about a fifth of the world's oil and a third of its liquefied natural gas, making its closure a direct threat to global markets. In late February, amid the US-Iran war, the Strait was effectively closed to most commercial shipping, sending oil prices soaring and disrupting supply chains worldwide. Now, after a framework deal between the White House and the Iranian regime, the waterway is supposed to reopen — but experts warn that a return to normal will take months, and the economic ripple effects will be felt long after the shooting stops.
The conflict began more than three months ago when the US and Israel first launched military operations against Iran. The crisis quickly escalated, closing the Strait of Hormuz to all but a few vessels with Iranian ties. Hundreds of ships — including tankers, bulk carriers, and container vessels — were trapped in the Gulf, unable to pass due to sea mines, drone strikes, and the risk of attacks. Global oil prices spiked as supply tightened, and shipping companies were forced to reroute or halt operations. Denmark's Maersk, the world's second largest shipping line, had five ships stuck in the Gulf. German giant Hapag-Lloyd had four. Both said they were waiting for the deal to be signed and for mines to be cleared before moving their vessels.
“Explains the Strait of Hormuz closure, its economic impact, and what the US-Iran deal means for UK readers.”
On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced the framework agreement, posting "Let the oil flow!" on social media and claiming that ships were already moving out of the Strait, which he described as "totally safe, secure and pristine." But ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic told a different story: since Sunday, only two vessels — a bulk carrier and a tanker — had exited the waterway with active location trackers. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, cautioned that it remained to be seen whether the deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement." He added that tankers were in the wrong place, oil production and refining facilities needed to ramp up, and insurance costs for ships traversing the Strait would remain a barrier.
For UK readers, the stakes are immediate and personal. The Strait of Hormuz is the route for a significant portion of the oil and gas that powers British homes, businesses, and transport. When the Strait closed, petrol prices at the pump rose, heating bills increased, and businesses faced higher raw material costs. A prolonged disruption would have hit the UK economy hard, given its reliance on imported energy. Although the UK produces some North Sea oil, it is a net importer of oil and gas, meaning any global price shock transmits directly to consumers. The deal may ease prices in the short term, but the slow return of shipping capacity means relief at the pump will not be instant.
Q: How long will it take for oil shipments to return to normal through the Strait of Hormuz? Experts say it will likely take months for oil flows to reach pre-war levels. Even if ships get safe passage, tankers are scattered, facilities need to restart, and insurance issues must be resolved. Capital Economics noted that shipping companies are still reluctant to move vessels through the waterway.
Q: What caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? The closure resulted from the US-Iran war that began in late February 2024. The conflict effectively shut the Strait to most commercial traffic due to military dangers such as sea mines and drone strikes, which made it too risky for crews and shipowners.
Q: How does this affect the price of petrol in the UK? When oil prices rise globally because of supply disruptions, UK petrol prices increase because the cost of crude oil is a major component of the price at the pump. The closure of the Strait sent oil prices soaring, and the slow reopening means prices may stay elevated for some time.
What happens next depends on the durability of the peace deal. The framework agreement still needs to be signed, and mines need to be cleared before shipping can resume en masse. Hapag-Lloyd hopes to move its stuck ships over the weekend once the deal is signed. But uncertainty remains: as Shearing put it, the agreement could be either a fragile truce or a durable settlement. For now, the global economy — and UK consumers — must wait to see whether the oil can truly start flowing again.