Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is slowly resuming after a US-Iran framework deal, but experts warn a return to normal shipping will take time and the impact on global oil prices and the cost of living will linger for months.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas passes. When the US and Israel began a war with Iran in late February, the strait was effectively closed to most shipping, choking off supplies and sending global oil prices soaring. A ceasefire and now a framework deal between the White House and the Iranian regime aim to reopen the waterway. US President Donald Trump declared on social media: "Let the oil flow!" and later said ships were "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz". However, BBC Verify checked ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic and found that only two vessels with active location trackers had exited the strait since Sunday – a bulk carrier and a tanker. Hundreds of vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, with the risk of sea mines and drone strikes keeping many shipping companies reluctant to move.
“An explainer on the Strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran deal, and its impact on oil prices and UK consumers.”
The closure of the strait has had a direct impact on the global economy. The conflict limited supplies of oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities, driving up prices. For UK consumers, this translates into higher petrol prices and increased costs for goods transported by sea, including food. Even with a deal, economist Neil Shearing of Capital Economics says it remains to be seen whether the agreement "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement", and that it will likely "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels". He highlights that tankers are in the wrong place, oil production and refining facilities need to ramp up, and insurance costs for ships traversing the strait remain uncertain.
The background to this crisis is the importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic chokepoint. Located between Iran and Oman, it connects the oil-rich Persian Gulf with the open ocean. Any disruption here quickly affects global energy markets. The conflict that began in late February effectively closed the strait to most commercial shipping, with only vessels friendly to Iran able to pass. More than three months of hostilities have left shipping companies cautious. Denmark's Maersk, the world's second biggest shipping line, has five ships stuck in the Gulf and says it is too early to assess how the agreement will impact logistics. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz affect UK petrol prices? The strait is a vital route for oil tankers; when it closes, global oil supplies fall and prices rise. UK petrol prices are tied to global oil benchmarks, so a sustained closure pushes up costs at the pump.
Q: Are ships already sailing normally through the Strait of Hormuz? Not yet. Ship-tracking data shows only two vessels exited the waterway since the deal was announced. Hundreds remain stuck, and shipping companies are waiting for mines to be cleared and insurance issues to be resolved before resuming normal operations.
Q: What does the US-Iran deal mean for the global economy? The deal could eventually lower oil prices and reduce shipping costs, easing inflationary pressures. However, economists caution that it will take months for supply chains to fully recover, meaning the economic benefits will not be immediate.
What happens next depends on the durability of the deal. The framework agreement needs to be signed, mines cleared, and shipping companies must be confident of safe passage. Even then, it will take time to reposition tankers and restart oil production and refining facilities. Markets have reacted cautiously: oil prices dropped and stocks rallied on the news, but investors are waiting to see if the truce holds. For UK consumers, the immediate relief may be limited, but a sustained reopening of the strait would eventually lower energy and food costs.