More than 14 million drivers are set to hit UK roads this weekend in what the RAC has described as the busiest summer getaway in four years – and mathematicians warn that switching lanes will only make the jams worse.
The RAC estimates that 14.1 million motorists will make journeys for holidays or day trips between Friday and Sunday, the second-highest figure since tracking began in 2016, surpassed only by 2022’s 18.8 million when Covid lockdown restrictions were lifted. Saturday is predicted to be the most hectic day, with 3.8 million planned trips, while Friday and Sunday are each expected to see 3.4 million. A further 6.8 million trips are spread across the three days, according to the RAC.
“RAC estimates 14.1m motorists will hit UK roads this weekend in busiest summer getaway since 2022.”
The surge comes as most schools in England and Wales break up for the summer holidays this month; schools in Scotland and Northern Ireland have already finished. The south-west and north-west of England are expected to see the most leisure traffic, with transport analytics company Inrix identifying several likely congestion hotspots: the M1 southbound from Northampton (Junction 16) to Watford (Junction 6), the M25 clockwise from Junction 15 (the M4) to Junction 19 (Watford), and the M25 anticlockwise from Junction 17 (Maple Cross) to Junction 12 (the M3).
At the Port of Dover, approximately 7,500 outbound cars were expected on Friday, rising to 10,000 on Saturday. A statement from the port said traffic remained steady, with an approximate 32-minute wait time in the buffer zone. “All operators currently have queues building at their check-ins, while the port approaches remain clear and traffic is flowing well. Safe travels!” the statement read. Ferry passengers had already been instructed not to arrive earlier than two hours before departure, with wait times reaching an hour yesterday. Port chief executive Doug Bannister said it was “very disappointing” that a new Entry/Exit System processing facility – built as part of a £40 million investment – was not being used for cars because the technology had not been activated.
RAC spokesperson Harriet Hernando urged drivers to plan their journeys, thinking about setting off earlier or later in the day to avoid traffic jams. “People should prepare for delays and getting stuck in a jam in potentially very hot weather,” she said, advising travellers to “carry plenty of water, as well as sun cream, and an umbrella to provide shade.”
Meanwhile, experts warned that many of the queues drivers face are “phantom traffic jams” – stop-start waves that travel backwards through traffic even though every vehicle is moving forwards. Randa Herzallah, Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Warwick, said: “If you’ve ever found yourself staring enviously at the lane next to you, convinced it’s moving faster, you’re not alone. Most of us instinctively believe that changing lanes will get us home sooner. But mathematics suggests this intuition is usually wrong.” She explained that a lane change creates a small disturbance that neighbouring drivers must react to, and if many drivers behave the same way, “these disturbances accumulate and increase the likelihood of traffic waves.” Herzallah added: “Applied mathematics shows the fastest way to your destination isn’t to drive more aggressively. It’s to help keep the entire system stable.”