Donald Trump has performed a dramatic U-turn on his threat to charge cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz as much as 20% – but the US and Iran have continued trading strikes as the president told Congress that war has resumed.
The climb-down, described by analysts as the latest in a series of retreats, has emboldened Tehran and pushed the prospect of peace further away. The war has fractured Iran’s regime: its military is vastly depleted and its defences degraded, yet the less hardline elements within its leadership are losing the argument to end the conflict.
“Trump U-turns on Strait tolls, emboldening Iran, as US-Iran war continues and UK faces IRGC threats.”
Washington is now torn between continuing to step up pressure in the hope that Tehran’s defiance will collapse, or seizing Kharg Island and imposing a permanent military presence. The former would require another climb-down, possibly giving up control of the Strait entirely; the latter would embed the US in a military operation for years.
Trump has hinted at a major escalation. “Next week comes the bridges,” he said. “We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’ll knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate. Sometimes you need a ground campaign, but we have other people that will do the ground campaign for us.” The reference to “other people” is widely taken to mean dissident Kurdish forces – though whether they will have the appetite after being treated shabbily by the US in Syria and Iraq is uncertain.
Meanwhile, Iran has struck out aggressively at the UK’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a banned terrorist organisation. Threats expected include sabotage, violence towards Iranian dissidents within Britain, and terrorist attacks against UK interests abroad. Although currently a sideshow to the worsening US–Iran war, this could become very serious if the conflict settles into the shadows.
The president’s rolling bulletins of lies and obfuscation make it impossible to see a way out, according to observers. Every threatening outburst erodes his chance of making a favourable deal with Tehran – even as US forces prepare for what could be a major ground campaign in the Middle East.