Donald Trump has declared that a peace deal with Iran is “all signed” – but as world leaders gathered at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains on Monday, the agreement’s fragility was already emerging.
The US president said the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” from Friday, adding that the waterway had already partially reopened. “I think a lot of great things are going to happen in the Middle East right now,” he told French President Emmanuel Macron. “The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”
“Trump announces US-Iran peace deal at G7 summit, but CIA director flags serious doubts over nuclear concessions.”
The memorandum of understanding – described by Vice President JD Vance as “about a page and a half” and “a very general document” – extends a ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days. A formal signing ceremony is set for Friday in Geneva, attended by Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
But the deal’s details remain opaque. White House officials said the full text would be released “pretty soon”, while Vance told CNN that more details would be disclosed over the next two days. “On a number of issues, we are going to have to figure this stuff out during the technical negotiation phase,” he said.
Behind the scenes, doubts were already surfacing. CIA Director John Ratcliffe – backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – flagged “serious doubts” to Trump about Iran’s willingness to make the nuclear concessions the US wants in any final deal, three sources familiar with the discussions told Axios. The new agreement does not resolve the fate of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, which Trump says he wants destroyed or removed.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose nation mediated the talks, announced that both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”. But Israeli breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran’s claims about charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz revealed the many loose ends.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the memorandum an “important step” but noted a final agreement “has yet to take shape”. Dr Andreas Krieg of King’s College London said he did not see the deal as a strategic win for the US. “Washington comes out of this war weaker, less trusted and less able to impose outcomes in the Middle East.”
The conflict has killed at least 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and upended global energy markets. Oil prices dropped by more than 4% following the announcement, hitting their lowest since March – though experts have warned it could take months for energy production to return to normal.
“This deal may be real,” said Dr Katayoun Shahandeh of the University of London. “But whether it can last is another matter entirely.”