Turkey and Haiti have become the first teams eliminated from the 2026 World Cup – each with one group-stage match still to play – as the expanded 48-team tournament's complex qualification rules came into sharp focus.
In Group D, Turkey lost 2-0 to Australia in their opener, with Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe scoring, then suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Paraguay on Saturday morning, Matias Galarza’s second-minute strike proving decisive. That loss came despite Paraguay playing the entire second half with 10 men after Miguel Almiron’s sending-off just before the break.
“Turkey and Haiti are eliminated from the World Cup despite each having one group game left.”
With no points from two games, Turkey sit bottom of Group D. The United States lead on six points after back-to-back victories, while Australia and Paraguay are level on three points each, separated by goal difference. Because head-to-head results now supersede goal difference as Fifa’s primary tiebreaker – a change from the system used since 1970 – Turkey cannot finish above either Australia or Paraguay even if they beat the US in their final fixture. Both Australia and Paraguay have beaten Turkey, so the European side would lose any tiebreaker.
Haiti have also been eliminated from another group, despite having one game left, for similar reasons. The new format, expanded from 32 to 48 teams, sees the top two from each of the 12 groups advance, alongside the eight best third‑placed teams. Co-hosts Mexico and the United States have already booked their places, a boon for organisers aiming to keep home crowds invested.
Fifa’s tiebreaker system now prioritises head-to-head results between tied teams, then a mini‑league removing results against the rest of the group, followed by goal difference and goals scored. If still level, a Team Conduct Score – based on cards – comes into play.
With 495 possible combinations for the last 32, the elimination of Turkey and Haiti underscores the unforgiving nature of the new rules. Today’s fixtures include Netherlands vs Sweden in Houston, a crucial Group F showdown, as the group stage nears its conclusion.