The next prime minister of the United Kingdom, widely expected to be Andy Burnham, faces immediate pressure from former Nato leaders and current allies to wake the country up to the threat of war and to commit to higher defence spending, while simultaneously ensuring that the government's bet on artificial intelligence endures as a central pillar of economic and security policy.
At the heart of the current debate is the UK's plan to increase military spending by £15 billion over the next four years, a plan Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer set out last week. But Lord Robertson, a former Nato secretary general and Labour defence secretary who wrote a strategic review for Starmer, told MPs that the delay in publishing the defence investment plan (DIP) has caused confusion inside the Ministry of Defence and disturbance in the defence industry. He said the challenge of meeting threats is now “bigger, more serious, and earlier than we had anticipated, and yet the defence investment plan itself doesn't come up to it”. Lord Robertson warned of “corrosive complacency” across the whole political leadership and said “people need to be woken up” to the reality that the UK is under daily attack and that will escalate. Sir Keir has said that Russia could attack a Nato member as soon as 2030.
“UK faces pressure to boost defence spending while maintaining AI priority under incoming PM Burnham.”
The pressure is mounting ahead of a Nato summit in Ankara, where Nato chief Mark Rutte has called on allies to commit 3.5% of GDP to defence spending and to provide “clear and credible” plans to reach that target. The Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis has said he wants Andy Burnham to set out how he will reach that target when he becomes prime minister, but Jarvis wouldn't reveal whether he has spoken to Burnham in person yet.
At the same time, the UK's commitment to AI is expected to continue under Burnham. AI Minister Kanishka Narayan said at a POLITICO event that he and Technology Secretary Liz Kendall have met with Burnham “to talk about the centrality” of AI for the UK. Narayan said the importance of AI to the UK's economy, national security and geopolitical power are “enduring facts” that will drive the Labour Party's direction. He acknowledged public concern about job losses but argued for a “fair transition” and said investment in AI infrastructure offers a “remarkable opportunity” for reindustrialisation across the country.
The background to these twin challenges is the UK's long-standing defence spending commitments as a Nato member. The alliance has historically aimed for members to spend 2% of GDP on defence, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and broader threats have led to calls for a higher target, now 3.5%. The UK's current plan to increase spending by £15bn over four years has been criticised as too slow and insufficient. Meanwhile, the government sees AI as critical to maintaining the UK's competitive edge, but it must balance investment against other fiscal pressures.
For UK readers, the implications are direct. Defence spending affects national security, the size and equipment of the armed forces, and the defence industrial base that provides jobs. The AI push promises economic growth and new jobs but also risks disruption in traditional sectors. The transition to a new prime minister will determine how these priorities are balanced and how quickly the UK moves to meet its Nato commitments.
Q: What is the UK's current defence spending plan? The government has set out plans to increase military spending by £15 billion over the next four years. The plan prioritises the UK's nuclear deterrent and a shift toward drones and unmanned systems. However, critics say the plan is unconvincing and too slow given the threats.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham and why is he becoming prime minister? Andy Burnham is the MP for Makerfield and the widely expected successor to Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister. He has been involved in discussions about defence and AI policy, though he has not yet publicly detailed his defence spending plans.
Q: What is the Nato 3.5% GDP defence spending target? Nato chief Mark Rutte has called on allies to commit 3.5% of their gross domestic product to defence, up from the previous 2% target. This is in response to heightened threats from Russia and other challenges. The UK is under pressure to provide a credible plan to reach this level.
What happens next is a series of key moments. The Nato summit in Ankara this week will see Sir Keir face pressure over defence spending. Meanwhile, the transition to Andy Burnham as prime minister is expected soon, and he will need to set out his defence and AI priorities. Lord Robertson has warned that it may take a crisis to raise sufficient funds for war, implying that the debate over spending will intensify in the coming months.