More than 20 million people in England are now living under hosepipe bans, and eight regions have been moved one step closer to an official drought declaration. This is not just another dry spell — it is a sign that the UK’s water supply is under serious and growing strain.
A drought is simply a prolonged lack of water, but there is no single official threshold. Instead, the National Drought Group — which brings together the Met Office, the National Farmers' Union, water companies and other expert bodies — assesses conditions including rainfall shortages, impacts on agriculture and wildlife, wildfire risk, and low water reserves in rivers and reservoirs. As of late July 2026, East Anglia, the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, Hertfordshire and London, Wessex, Thames, Solent and the South Downs have been classified as being in "prolonged dry weather" — the stage before drought.
“Explains why eight England regions are near drought, hosepipe bans affecting millions, and climate context.”
This situation has been building for months. The spring and summer of 2026 saw exceptionally low rainfall in parts of the east and south, combined with high temperatures that evaporated moisture from the soil. On the hottest days in July, demand for public water supplies jumped by up to 30%. Seven water companies have now imposed or announced hosepipe bans to protect treatment works and storage. A hosepipe uses about a thousand litres of water an hour — more than a family of four uses in a day — so these bans aim to cut unnecessary consumption quickly.
The impact goes beyond household gardens. Farmers have had to start harvesting early, and there are warnings that cereal yields may suffer. Paul Tompkins, deputy president of the National Farmers' Union, said farmers are "working around the clock to harvest crops which have come early, keep fruit and vegetables watered, and care for their livestock." He warned that this could mean "another difficult and expensive harvest after extreme weather impacts in both 2024 and 2025."
For UK readers, this is not a distant problem. If you live in one of the affected regions, your water use is already restricted: watering gardens with a hosepipe, washing cars, or filling paddling pools could be banned. But the issue runs deeper. Climate change is making these events more frequent. Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate information scientist, noted that 2025 was the UK’s warmest year on record — the sixth time that record has been broken this century — and that warming of about 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s makes it likely the record will be broken again in a few years. "These climate extremes are becoming the new normal," he said.
Q: What is the difference between "prolonged dry weather" and an official drought? "Prolonged dry weather" is the stage before a drought is declared. The National Drought Group monitors conditions and will only declare a drought if rainfall deficits, impacts on farming and wildlife, wildfire risk, and low water reserves reach a certain severity. There is no fixed formula — it is a judgment call based on expert assessment.
Q: How long could this dry period last? Droughts can last from a few weeks to several years, according to the Met Office. Unlike most extreme weather, drought builds up over time and can persist even after rain returns, because the ground and reservoirs take a long time to recover. The current dry conditions follow an exceptionally dry spring and summer.
Q: Will the rain forecast for this weekend end the drought risk? The Met Office has forecast heavy rain for 22 areas this Sunday, especially across northern England and the East of England. While this will provide some short-term relief, one weekend of rain is unlikely to reverse months of low rainfall and depleted water stores. The Environment Agency and water companies will continue to monitor the situation closely.
What happens next depends on whether the autumn and winter bring enough rain to refill rivers and reservoirs. The Met Office’s long-range forecast suggests a changeable period with some rain, but also hints that high pressure could return, bringing dry conditions again, especially in the south. If the drought deepens, more restrictions — including possible non-essential use bans — could follow. Water companies are already asking customers to conserve water voluntarily. The key date to watch is the autumn: if rainfall remains below average, the UK could face an even tighter water supply next year.
