The longest dry spell in central England since 1995 has raised fears of a repeat of last year's drought, with Wisley in Surrey clocking 33 consecutive days without rain.
Parts of eastern and north-eastern England have received just 26% of their expected summer rainfall by 15 July, following a very dry spring in similar regions. While a wet autumn and winter recharged aquifers, rivers and reservoirs, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology warns that flash droughts – a sudden transition between wet and dry conditions – are now "likely to happen more often, and be more intense".
“Wisley records 33 dry days as UK faces potential second summer drought; forecast shows little relief”
Last year, drought was declared across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland, and officially ended only four months ago. This year, the pattern is unfolding more slowly, but the prolonged dry weather is already taking its toll. Grass has turned brown and parched across many locations, and farmers are having to adapt to protect livestock and crops.
High pressure remains in charge for at least the next five days, meaning no significant rainfall for most areas. A few midweek showers may affect coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, as well as northern Scotland, but they will be light. Through the weekend, rain-bearing weather fronts will try to move in from the north-west, but most of the rain is likely to fall across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. As the fronts push south, they may fizzle out, leaving little or no rainfall for the places that need it most, in the south and east.
Looking further ahead, it is too far off to know for sure, but there are hints that things could stay mainly dry and warm, especially in the south, although summer thunderstorms are possible. The coming days will be critical: if the dry spell continues, drought declarations may follow.