Weather modelling data suggests the UK could see what would be – by far – the hottest day in British history next week, as forecasters warn a fourth heatwave of the year is on the way.
One data set from the GEFS weather model shows staggering highs of 45C are on the cards in the south-east, in and around London, on Thursday. If that were to come to fruition, it would comfortably beat the current all-time temperature record of 40.3C, set during the sweltering July 2022 heatwave – the first time the mercury surpassed 40C in Britain.
“UK could see 45C next week, hottest day ever, as fourth heatwave looms”
However, other weather models suggest more modest highs of 39C or 40C, and the Met Office remains cautious. “Some models are showing mid-30s into next week, however, we’re currently looking at temperatures between 30°C and potentially 32°C,” said Niamh Murray, operational meteorologist at the Met Office. “We’re not going for 35°C, but, given the timeframe, there is scope for that to be supported by other models.”
The Met Office says “very warm weather” is expected to return to some parts of the UK next week, with the fourth heatwave of the year likely. “Many parts of England and Wales are likely to return to the mid to high-20s early next week, with the potential for temperatures to reach 30C again in southern and eastern England by Tuesday,” the national weather agency said. “Conditions in the southeast could become very warm or locally hot, with the possibility that some locations may once again reach heatwave criteria, potentially making this the fourth heatwave episode of the year for parts of the UK.”
The heatwave thresholds – 25C in the north and west, 28C in parts of the south and east – have already been met three times this year: once in late May, once in June and again in July. Some locations, including Usk, Monmouthshire and Exeter, Devon, have reached heatwave criteria for the 20th consecutive day.
The dry conditions have already taken a toll. A wildfire in Cairngorms National Park, Scotland forced over 600 people to be evacuated, and hosepipe bans continue across much of the south of England and Wales, with eight water companies introducing restrictions. Fears of water shortages for thousands of homes are mounting.
The Met Office forecast issued this morning predicts highs of 31C in southern areas on Tuesday and Wednesday, with northern regions reaching 28C. Temperatures are expected to peak on Wednesday, with sunny spells persisting until Friday. Central and eastern England will initially see the hottest weather before it spreads northwards and westwards. Scotland and Northern Ireland will remain cooler, with temperatures generally in the high teens or low to mid-twenties.
Some forecasters have predicted parts of east Wales and England could see highs of 35C – a level the Met Office is not yet forecasting but has not ruled out. The GEFS model’s extreme outlier of 45C remains unlikely, but the potential for record-breaking heat has put the nation on alert.